According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic PP market was in a volatile operation in early March, and the spot prices of each brand were rising and falling. As of March 5, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic producers and traders was about 9416.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.35% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, an increase of 11.44% on a month-on-month basis.

Cause analysis

The domestic market of propylene in the upstream of PP ushered in a surge mode during the Spring Festival. At present, the international crude oil still rose well. From the situation that the rise of propylene market was blocked, the profit level of propylene was not as good as expected. In the short term, the recovery capacity of overseas units is limited, and it will take some time for propylene production to rise significantly. The price of the market in the early stage has been rising continuously, the shipment situation is booming, and the inventory of the manufacturer is declining. At present, domestic inventory is low, but the price of goods source is high, the downstream users are more resistant and the volume of investment is shrinking. The manufacturer is active in shipping and starts to make profit and go order. It is expected that the propylene price or vibration adjustment operation will be carried out in the near future.

At present, the rise of propylene market is blocked, and the support of PP cost end is still acceptable. After the festival, the domestic recovery speed is favorable to the demand side, and the demand on the site is rapidly unfolding. But the current PP price is also at a high level, and the enthusiasm of downstream factories to buy is declining. And this week, inventory rose, and two barrels of oil to the warehouse appeared resistance. In addition, the plant of Ningbo phase II project of Donghua energy started to put into operation in the early stage, and the current PP price is stagnant and fluctuating. The situation of export reduction caused by force majeure is still weak in the external market power in terms of price. The industry is still worried about the lack of supply of chemicals. The increase of overseas market demand has a certain boost on domestic PP price.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of March 5, the mainstream market offer of Z30S (fiber) of domestic producers and traders also rose greatly, with the price of about 9383.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.05% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, a 10.18% increase on the same period last month. The recent changes in the emission are not significant, the proportion of domestic fiber PP is more than 13%, and the overall output is stable. The high price of the source affects the downstream mentality. At present, the traders respond to the increase of shipping resistance, and expand the profit making space in operation.

After saving, the cost side of PP melt spray material improved and the price of melt blown PP also fell. As of March 5, the average price of pph-y1500 sample enterprises of melt spray material monitored by the business society was 11200 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is stable, and the middle and high-risk areas in the country are cleared at the end of last month. The domestic epidemic prevention situation has been stable and good, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials has declined. The situation of overseas epidemic situation has not changed much, and the multinational government has implemented mandatory masks and the demand is stable. But recently, the price of the melt spray materials has also declined, and ExxonMobil, jumeilai and other high-melt fiber products have been reduced. At present, the background of surplus supply in the melt spray cloth manufacturing market remains unchanged, and the profit is still not ideal.

Post market forecast

PP analysts of business agency think: domestic PP spot market trend volatility adjustment at the beginning of March is mainly. The upstream propylene price rise is blocked, the price is high, and the support for PP cost end is still acceptable. Recently, futures trend is not ideal, there is a certain pressure on the mentality of the market. The high spot price also affects the delivery of production dealers. The current market delivery and investment decrease, and the operation of transferring profit to the order increases. Downstream demand began to shrink, mostly with the strategy of on-demand, polypropylene oil and social inventory began to rise. The supply of overseas goods is tight and the inflation expectation of macro market is not changed. It is expected that the PP market will be strong in the near future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market remained stable at the beginning of March, and the spot price rose today. As of the press time on March 4, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 16100 yuan / ton, up 22.28% month on month.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

Upstream, domestic caprolactam from the market trend in early March, the spot price shock rise. The improvement of caprolactam supply is limited, and the situation is still tight. Today, Sinopec’s caprolactam rose to enhance confidence in the market. The downstream side mainly purchased on demand, and the recent single volume was warmer. Raw material pure benzene was supported by a sharp drop in crude oil production capacity and a stronger cost side, and the price of pure benzene in the external market rose. Domestic pure benzene was boosted, and the low inventory of enterprises was favorable, and the price continued to rise, which strongly supported the cost of caprolactam. It is expected that caprolactam market will be sorted out in the short term.

The high price of raw material caprolactam strongly supports the cost of PA6. In the early stage, the small peak of PA6 chip demand pushed up the spot price, and there was no pressure on the current polymerization plant inventory. Recently, merchants are more active in shipping, and spinning enterprises have strong demand for PA6. But today, the overall operation of downstream plants tends to be cautious, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is gradually spreading. The trading volume of some domestic plasticization markets declined, and there was an offer shock, which led to the phenomenon of taking orders secretly.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts from business news agency believe that: in early March, the domestic market of PA6 remained high and firm, the support from upstream caprolactam was still strong, and the cost of PA6 was stable and strong. At present, the downstream purchasing operation is buy as you use, and rigid demand is the main one. Market trading atmosphere cooling, offer rise blocked. Overall, the current fundamentals of PA6 are strong, and the price of PA6 is expected to be high.

On March 3, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there was one commodity that rose, one commodity that fell, and five commodities that rose or fell to zero. Rising products include chloroform; falling products include R134a; stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, R22, aluminum fluoride and cryolite.

On March 3, the prices of some fluorite chemical raw materials in the market fell, with the price of raw fluorite at 2761.11 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained high. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started to work normally, and some mines and flotation plants stopped. The fluorite supply in the plant was tight, but the downstream market was stable, and the price of fluorite was affected, and the increase was limited. As of March 3, the price of fluorite in Jiangxi was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

Recently, the price of some downstream refrigerants rose, and the operating rate remained low. The demand for hydrofluoric acid was general. However, due to the normal supply on the site, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly. As of March 3, the quotation of hydrofluoric acid market was 10611.11 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market was mainly stable, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid was less than 60%. The enterprises reflected that the current market situation was stable The supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal. Recently, the market of hydrofluoric acid on the market is general. The ex factory price of some enterprises is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. However, people on the market reflect that it is difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to rise sharply in the near future. Business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market of hydrofluoric acid may remain volatile.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong has been rising. The overall demand of the downstream market has not changed much. The demand for trichloromethane is general. As the downstream market begins to stock up, the market price of trichloromethane has risen slightly. At present, the start-up of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipping situation of enterprises is flat. In order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, enterprises bid for shipping. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 3100-3150 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the price of raw material chloroform rises slightly, and the cost support is general. In the near future, the downstream gradually starts to stock, the demand side rises, and the market center rises slightly. Due to the stable price trend of hydrofluoric acid, the price of some affected refrigerants rises. Refrigerant R134a price trend fell slightly, the market is strong operation. In the near future, the start-up in the downstream remained low, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market was mainly volatile.

According to the price monitoring data of the business association, as of February 28, the average reference price of the mainstream regional average price of domestic n-propanol containing packaging was around 10733 yuan / ton. Compared with the price in February and early February (reference price of 10866 yuan / ton on February 1), the average price decreased 133 yuan / ton, or 1.23%.

Weak supply and demand in early February, positive propanol market fell slightly

Since the beginning of February, affected by the downward external market of raw material ethylene, the weakening of n-propanol cost support, the stoppage of logistics before the festival and the reduction of downstream demand, the domestic industrial n-propanol market was weak and fell, and the spot suppliers reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by 200-300 yuan / ton. Then, the market was weak and stable until before the Spring Festival, as of February 15 The factory quotation of n-propanol bulk water in Shandong Province was around 9600-10000 yuan / ton, including packaging price around 10500-11000 yuan / ton. The reference factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing is 9500-9800 yuan / ton.

After the festival, supply and demand gradually recovered, and the market of n-propanol was stable and slightly upward

During the holiday, the domestic industrial n-propanol market maintained stable operation. On the first day of construction, the market quotation of n-propanol in Nanjing and Shandong was basically the same as that before the festival. By the end of February, the market supply was normal and the downstream demand was gradually opened. The suppliers of n-propanol secondary market in Shandong Province slightly increased the ex factory price of n-propanol by 100-200 yuan / ton. As of February 28, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial n-propanol with package was 10733 yuan / ton, which was 33 yuan / ton higher than that on February 11, and 133 yuan lower than that on February 1 /Tons, down 1.23%.

In terms of raw materials, after the Spring Festival, the external market of ethylene showed an overall upward trend. As of the 26th, the price of ethylene in Asia was USD 1047-1055 / T in Northeast Asia and USD 997-1005 / T in Southeast Asia. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $1156-1168 per ton. In the European ethylene market, FD offers us $1196-1210 / T in northwest Europe, and CIF offers us $1159-1170 / T in northwest Europe. On February 28, the reference price of ethylene was 1092.50 yuan / ton, up 97 yuan / ton or 9.99% compared with February 18 (993.25 yuan / ton).

Normal start-up demand recovers, n-propanol may rise steadily in the future

At present, the production of n-propanol in Nanjing Rongxin is normal, the downstream demand has gradually returned to normal, the supply and demand is relatively stable, the continuous rise of raw materials after the festival and the follow-up of demand have a positive impact on the future trend of n-propanol. Therefore, business community propanol data analysts expect that propanol market will continue to warm up operation, the market as a whole will rise steadily.

According to the data from the commodity list of business news agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has risen recently. On February 28, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1216.67 yuan / ton, and on March 1, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1246.67 yuan / ton. The current price has increased by 6.86% month on month, and the current price has increased by 17.61% year on year.

Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market price has risen. As of March 1, the mainstream ex factory price in Central China is about 1130 yuan / ton, that in North China is 1060 yuan / ton, and that in East China is 1211 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Galaxy formaldehyde production capacity of 120000 tons / year formaldehyde plant has been restarted. Recently, the formaldehyde factories in Shandong Province have been started one after another. Formaldehyde manufacturers deliver according to orders, the inventory is low, the market trading atmosphere is gradually improving, and the industry promotes the rise of formaldehyde market.

Upstream methanol situation: the offer price of methanol market in southern Shandong increased by 10-30 yuan / ton to 2250-2270 yuan / ton, and the negotiation intention was to withdraw cash from the plant near 2250-2260 yuan / ton. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2250-2260 yuan / ton and sent them to cash exchange. The logistics goods offer price is not available for the time being. The methanol market in the central part of Shandong Province negotiated to deliver RMB 2110-2150 / T to spot exchange. There was no obvious transaction, and most of them stayed on the sidelines. Methanol market narrow rise, can form a certain support for formaldehyde market.

Recently, the weather is getting warmer and the workers are speeding up to return to their posts. The downstream plate factories in Shandong are continuing to resume production, and the demand for formaldehyde is improving, which supports the rise of formaldehyde market, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is good. Formaldehyde market continues to rise.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol showed an upward trend, with strong cost support, and the demand of downstream plate factories continued to improve. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the chemical branch of business society predicted that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong would mainly rise in the near future.