1、 Price trend

The ex factory price of ISO octanol in Shandong Province rose this week, and it showed a downward trend over the weekend. This week, the average price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose from 15700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 16266.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.61%, 147.09% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the market of ISO octanol rose this week, and there was a downward trend over the weekend. The commodity index of ISO octanol on February 26 was 119.61.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of manufacturers’ quotations, the factory quotations of mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers in Shandong rose this week: Jianlan chemical quoted 16300 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, up 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi quoted 16000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, up 900 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 16500 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this week, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week Up 500 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol rose slightly this week, with the quoted price rising from 8345.45 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8554.64 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.51%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.97%. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Isooctanol downstream market, DOP factory price rose slightly this week. DOP quotation increased by 1.80% from 13900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 14150.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 95.62% over the same period of last year. The price of DOP in downstream increased, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for octanol procurement increased, and the demand for ISO octanol was better.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market was consolidated at a high level, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market rose slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was enhanced, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. Isooctanol analysts of business society think: in early March, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the market of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, since mid January, the market of acetic anhydride has continued to rise, and after the festival, the price of acetic anhydride is soaring again. As of February 26, the price of acetic anhydride was 9300.00 yuan / ton, 10.71% higher than 8400.00 yuan / ton before the festival (February 10), and 29.17% higher than that in mid January. After the soaring price of acetic anhydride, can the price be sustained? What’s the future of acetic anhydride market?

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid that since mid January, the price of acetic acid has been rising continuously. Before the festival, the equipment of acetic acid enterprises started at a low level, the downstream customers purchased actively, and the price of acetic acid continues to rise. After the festival, Hualu Hengsheng’s acetic acid equipment was shut down for maintenance, and the supply of domestic acetic acid raw materials decreased. Influenced by the cold wave, the acetic acid manufacturers in selanese, Texas, USA stopped, and the external price of acetic acid soared, stimulating the development of China The price of domestic acetic acid rose. With the resumption of Hualu Hengsheng acetic acid plant, the impact of cold wave in the United States is abating, the supply of acetic acid is normal, and the rising power of acetic acid in the future is insufficient. However, the active procurement in the downstream supports the high level of acetic acid, and the downward pressure of acetic acid price is limited, and the high level of acetic acid price in the future tends to stabilize. The supply of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, is insufficient, the price of acetic acid rises sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rises, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is huge; the price of acetic acid tends to stabilize in the future, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakens, and the downward pressure still exists.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price fluctuated and fell in January, rebounded from the bottom in February, and rose slightly after the festival. Although the rising range of methanol is limited after the festival, the overall cost of acetic anhydride still has a certain supporting role, and the rising power of acetic anhydride still exists.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that the price of acetic anhydride has experienced a long rise cycle since mid January, and acetic anhydride is soaring after the festival. The absolute high price of acetic anhydride has great pressure on the downstream cost, and the downstream customers are more resistant to the high price of acetic anhydride. There is a certain downward pressure on acetic anhydride in the future, and there is a risk of decline in acetic anhydride. However, due to the high price of acetic acid and the high cost of acetic anhydride, the price of acetic anhydride in the future is limited, the demand for acetic anhydride is high, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers is high, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride is small. Acetic anhydride is expected to maintain stability after shock or slight decline.

1、 Price trend

Business Club: maleic anhydride rose strongly after the festival, or more than 50%

According to the data of business news agency, as of February 25, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 12750.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 53.00% from 8100.00 yuan / ton on February 1.

On February 25, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 120.11, up 9.42 points from yesterday, down 2.88% from the highest point of 123.67 points in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 134.68% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

After the Spring Festival, the market price of maleic anhydride rose sharply. At present, the spot circulation is tight, the factory has no position pressure, and the large factories have entered the maintenance cycle, so the supply is tight. As of the 25th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Hebei and South China was about 12000 yuan / ton, 12000 yuan / ton, 12000 yuan / ton and 12500 yuan / ton respectively.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of WTI and Brent crude oil has increased by more than 16% since February. The good news of the international crude oil market is spreading continuously, and the inventories of the United States and China are declining. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the effect of national oil production control is ideal, so it is necessary to increase the supply and lower the crude oil market price. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limited the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and accidental factors helped to increase the price of crude oil. The main reason for the sharp rise in the price of maleic anhydride is the sharp rise in the price of bulk commodities due to the rise in the price of crude oil.

At present, after the Spring Festival, the downstream unsaturated resin has entered the stage of returning to work and production. The rising raw materials increase the pressure of resin cost and push up the resin market.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of hydrogenated benzene rose sharply after the festival. As of February 25, the mainstream quotation range of hydrogenated benzene Market in East China was 6500-6600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 6550 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, crude oil and pure benzene rose sharply, supporting the domestic price of pure benzene to rise; downstream styrene also rose, boosting the price of pure benzene. The price of n-butane is high.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe: at present, the maleic anhydride factory position is low, and has entered the maintenance stage, the supply and demand is tight, and the downstream resin has resumed production, it is expected that the price of maleic anhydride will fluctuate upward in the short term.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

On February 24, the market of propylene oxide rose. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of February 24, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18566.67 yuan / ton, up 0.72% compared with the previous trading day and 3.53% compared with January 24. At present, the propylene oxide manufacturers are still in a state of no pressure, the price support mentality still exists, most of the factory contracts are steadily promoted, the new order negotiation is higher and the feedback is smooth, the lower polyether level is high, and the wait-and-see mood increases.

Market price fluctuation of propylene oxide (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, 23rd price, 24th price

East China, 18400-18600, 18600-18800

Shandong Province, 18000-18300, 18200-18500

Upstream propylene, as of February 23, Shandong propylene market prices continue to rise. According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of January, rose slightly at the end of the month, and then began to stabilize. On the 8th, the price of enterprises generally dropped by 50 yuan / ton, and then entered the Spring Festival holiday. Most of the first half of the period remained stable, while the second half (from February 15) showed a steady upward trend. The 18th was the first day of official work, and the price rose by 200 yuan / ton every day from the 21st, and even rose by 4 yuan on the 22nd After the Spring Festival, a total of more than 1000 yuan / ton has been raised. Now the market transaction has reached 8500 ~ 8550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8500 yuan / ton.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 23, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol reference 14833.33 yuan / ton, increased by 12.66% compared with the price on February 18; downstream soft foam polyether, Shandong soft foam polyether market fluctuated at a high level on February 24, and the current cost support is still strong, but the downstream resistance to high price raw materials is gradually strong, the buying enthusiasm is declining, and the target price is low In the former Shandong area, the mainstream quotation of common soft foam polyether market was around 19100-19500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that at present, with the rise of raw material prices and cost support, propylene oxide manufacturers are still under no pressure. The downstream polyether market is slowing down and propylene glycol is pulling up at the same time. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will mainly run at a high level, and the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the market information guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 23, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 22600 yuan / ton, which increased by 1067 yuan / ton or 4.95% compared with the price before the Spring Festival (21533 yuan / ton on February 10), and by 1500 yuan / ton or 7.11% compared with the price on February 1, 2021 (21100 yuan / ton) %。

Positive attitude, good atmosphere, silicone DMC rising after the festival

After the return of the holiday, the trading atmosphere of the domestic silicone DMC market is good, and the industry has a lot of bullish attitude towards the market trend. In the early stage, some factories have limited orders, and the sales pressure after the holiday is small. On the 18th, Shandong silicone DMC market opened the curtain of DMC price rise, with a rise range of 200-500 yuan / ton on the first day. The collective rise of chemical raw materials also gives silicone DMC industry confidence, and the industry is bullish On the 19th and 20th, the market price of silicone DMC continued to rise, the low-end quotation continued to decrease, the price concentration moved up, the downstream stock was active after the festival, and the inquiry increased. On the 22nd, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry was adjusted upward again by 500 yuan / ton. At present, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC in domestic mainstream areas is around 22300-23000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 22600 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 21533 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival, the price after the festival has increased by more than 1000 yuan, or nearly 5%.

At present, the organosilicon monomer units have been resumed in succession. Several large factories in Shandong Province, including Luxi and Jinling, have started their work normally and smoothly. The existing units of Xin’an chemical and Hesheng organosilicon in Zhejiang Province have also started their work smoothly. The organosilicon monomer units of Zhongtian Dongfang fluorosilicone are now in a state of shutdown. At present, some factories still need to pay after the festival Pay early orders, moderate new orders, external quotation also began to temporarily closed.

Multi positive, silicone DMC will continue to rise in the future

At present, new orders of silicone DMC continue to increase, and some factories still mainly deliver early-stage contracts after the commencement of construction. The spot supply is tight, and the prices of downstream products are also rising strongly with the rise of raw materials. The confidence of upstream and downstream industries continues to improve. Therefore, the silicone DMC analysts of the business community believe that the market of silicone DMC will continue to rise in the short term, and the “rising voice” may have just begun.