1、 Price trend

In March, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was greatly affected by the crude oil slump, mainly following the decline. At the beginning of the month, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas market was 3700 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2706.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 26.85% in the price within the month, 32.28% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In March, the price of domestic liquefied gas market dropped significantly. As of March 31, the export price of Guangzhou Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2400 yuan / ton, Jingmen Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2700 yuan / ton, Shanghai Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2470 yuan / ton, Gaoqiao Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2450 yuan / ton, Qingdao Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2500 yuan / ton, Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2820 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2700 yuan / ton Tons per ton. The factory price of Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 2750 yuan / ton.

International crude oil: in March, the international crude oil market staged an amazing avalanche, and the price suffered a “cut back”. According to the data monitored by the business agency, WTI crude oil fell by 57.34%, Brent crude oil fell by nearly 50%. The oil price collapse is naturally one of the “black swan” events in 2020. There are two main reasons: the sharp reduction of global demand caused by social and public events, and the supply risk caused by the “price war” of Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase production.

This month, the trend of liquefied gas is mostly affected by the collapse of international crude oil, and the market trend is sharply down. At the beginning of the month, although the CP price fell in March, it fell less than expected, which brought certain benefits to the market. Coupled with the rebound of international crude oil, downstream market access improved, manufacturers shipped smoothly, and prices rose slightly. But then crude oil plummeted, and the market was in a bad mood. The downstream markets withdrew one after another to wait and see. In the middle of the month, crude oil plummeted again, hitting the market obviously, manufacturers kept making profits, and the shipment situation slightly improved. Then, with the retaliatory rebound of crude oil and the growth of market demand, the LPG market ushered in the rising market again. However, the positive results are limited. At the end of the month, with the crude oil exploring again, and under the influence of the sharp fall of CP price expectation in April, liquefied gas turned back to the downward trend again. At present, although the terminal demand has improved, it has not fully recovered, and the contradiction between market supply and demand is still in progress.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, the price of bulk commodities in the list of energy sector rose one commodity month on month, with LNG (7.42%) rising. There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 81.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 57.34%), Brent crude oil (- 48.93%) and liquefied gas (- 26.85%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 19.01%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the market demand has increased but the increase is limited, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. After the introduction of CP price in April, propane fell by $200 / T, butane fell by $240 / T, although the drop was smaller than expected. At present, liquefied gas has fallen to a relatively low level, and manufacturers have a clear attitude of market protection. The trend in April may be expected to rise.

On April 6, the fluorite commodity index was 110.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.15% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 124.99% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite continues to decline. As of the 7th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3066.67 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant has increased. The on-site mine and flotation plant are gradually back to work, and the supply of fluorite in the field is increasing. Due to the sufficient supply of goods in the field, the price of fluorite continues to decline. In addition, the price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid is declining. For fluorite market, purchase on demand The market price of fluorite declined. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream procurement of the terminal is not active, resulting in the continuous decline of market price. As of July 7, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2900-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2900-3100 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite in the field continued to fall.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is declining. As of the 7th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10730 yuan / ton. The decline in the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. In addition, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. For fluorite, it is mainly purchased on demand, the supply of goods in the site is normal, and the price trend of fluorite is declining. In recent years, the sales of automobile industry has been in a downturn, the market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is poor, the demand for refrigerant has been declining, the domestic R22 supply is sufficient, the domestic market price trend of refrigerant R22 has fallen, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply of goods in the market is normal, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturer stops more, and the demand changes little, in addition to foreign public health affairs The main price of domestic large enterprises is 16000-18000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

On the whole, the market trend of downstream refrigerant industry has fallen, the supply of fluorite has increased, and the recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has declined. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may continue to fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, on March 1, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 10633 yuan / ton, on March 31, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 9000 yuan / ton, and the price fell 15.36% in March.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in March, caprolactam was negatively affected by peripheral news of crude oil and chemical industry, and its price fell in the whole month. The price center of pure benzene at the cost end continued to move down and the port inventory accumulated. Imports of pure benzene fell sharply, the market negative mentality is heavier. Downstream products are dragged down by weak terminal demand, and inventory release is slow. At the same time, the upstream and demand are weakening, and the bad air is superimposed. Settlement price of liquid caprolactam enterprises in March. : the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8200 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the capacity of the manufacturer is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 9300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Industrial chain: in March, with the resumption of domestic production, the overall operating rate of raw material pure benzene picked up. Although domestic public events have been effectively controlled, large-scale outbreaks abroad have led to a sharp decline in crude oil and related energy chemicals. The downstream demand is weak, and the release of pure benzene capacity is blocked; in addition, the external market plummeted, and the low price hit, and the domestic pure benzene fell seriously. However, crude oil is low in price, with less cost constraints and profit margin. In March, the market of PA6 in China fell all the way, with a large price reduction. At present, the price of PA6 in China continues to decline, and the inventory consumption of slicing enterprises is slow. The downstream return to work rate is not high, mainly adopt the strategy of bargain hunting and replenishment. The market atmosphere was negative, business confidence was hit, and the mission was completed by the end of the month. Other sources said that the recent international health events caused panic in Europe, foreign chemical supply difficulties, plasticizer orders were cancelled. There are many difficulties in the industrial chain. It is expected that PA6 market will not improve in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the raw material pure benzene fell continuously in March due to the sharp drop in oil prices, with significant negative cost side. Liquid caprolactam fell sharply, while solid caprolactam fell with liquid. Downstream users lack confidence and demand shrinks. In the short term, the market is difficult to change, and caprolactam market is expected to remain sluggish in April.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continues to decline. As of April 2, the price of phthalic anhydride from ortho phthalic method was 4400 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously, the demand of plasticizer industry is general, and the market of phthalic anhydride continues to decline.

In recent years, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has continued to decline. Due to the impact of the low crude oil price in the early stage, the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material o-benzene has remained low, and the affected price of phthalic anhydride market has continued to decline. In addition, some phthalic anhydride manufacturers still have inventory in the near future, and the delivery situation is poor. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China fell, the downstream factories returned to work slowly, the factory inventory pressure increased, the high-end transactions were blocked, and the market price fell continuously. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 4200-4600 yuan / ton and 4000-4300 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 4300-4700 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers’ prices in the site fall, the downstream construction is not high, and the purchase is mainly on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant starts generally, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride goes along The trend is falling.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec fell to 3800 yuan / ton, the import price of phthalic acid in port area fell, the price of phthalic acid in port area fell, the price of phthalic acid in port area fell recently, the price of phthalic acid in external market fell, the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, the detailed discussion shows that the operation of phthalic acid equipment is basically normal, the supply of phthalic acid is stable, affected by the decline of upstream raw material phthalic acid price, phthalic anhydride City Market prices continued to fall.

In the downstream, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP fell, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of raw material of DOP fell in shock, DOP enterprises operated at low load, and the logistics and transportation recovered gradually in the near future, but DOP manufacturers still had a lot of inventory. DOP price fell, PVC enterprise equipment start low, customer procurement enthusiasm is poor. The main quotation in DOP market is about 5600-5900 yuan / ton, a small amount of market plasticizer is traded, the upstream ox price is significantly lower, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to fall in the later period.

1、 Price trend

Aniline prices have fallen this month, according to a large list of business associations. On March 1, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 7300 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 6800 yuan / ton; on March 31, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 5700 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 5600 yuan / ton. The monthly decline was 18.36%.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Raw materials: pure benzene fell more than in March. On March 1, the listing price of pure benzene was 5100-5500 yuan / ton (average price 5380.2 yuan / ton), and on March 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 2550-3200 yuan / ton (average price 2700 yuan / ton), with a monthly decrease of 49.82%. In March, with the resumption of domestic production, the overall operating rate of pure benzene picked up. Although domestic public events have been effectively controlled, large-scale outbreaks abroad have led to a sharp decline in crude oil and related energy chemicals. The downstream demand is weak, and the release of pure benzene capacity is blocked; in addition, the external market plummeted, and the low price hit, and the domestic pure benzene fell seriously. However, crude oil is low in price, with less cost constraints and profit margin. This month Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene seven times, a total of 2750 yuan / ton. Pure benzene, as a product greatly affected by crude oil, has a significant downward trend. The arrival of pure benzene increased this month, and the port inventory accumulated significantly.

Nitric acid: nitric acid rose after falling this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 1550 yuan / ton on March 1, and 1600 yuan / ton on March 31, with a monthly decrease of 3.23%.

2. Products: in March, with the improvement of domestic social public events, the enterprises resumed production, and the operating rate of aniline enterprises increased. However, the start-up of aniline is slow, the demand for aniline is weak, and the supply and demand are unbalanced. In addition, the cost surface is wide and loose, and aniline is continuously explored. Jinling park on February 12, restart a set of 100000 tons on March 8, Huatai park on March 20-28, and Yangnong Park in Jiangsu Province.

3、 Future forecast

1. Raw materials: foreign pure benzene enters China, and low price supply continues to impact the domestic market. The decline trend of some downstream products is stronger than that of pure benzene, with limited support for pure benzene; and the overall operating rate of downstream enterprises has declined, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased. Overall, the fundamentals are not good, and it is difficult for the short-term pure benzene market to improve substantially.

During the shutdown and maintenance of aniline plant in some enterprises, the supply and demand are temporarily stable. Focus on plant restart and downstream procurement of aniline plant. It is expected that the price of aniline will be stable in the short term, and the price trend in the later period will be affected by supply and demand.