Aluminum market trend

According to the data of business agency, as of March 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 11500 yuan / ton, 14553.33 yuan / ton compared with the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), with a fall of 20.98% in the first quarter, of which the average market price in March fell by 1686.67 yuan / ton, with a fall of 12.79% in the month.

Main factors of stage influence

January to February: affected by the Spring Festival and the domestic epidemic, the upstream and downstream operating rates have moved down, the production capacity has moved down relatively, and the domestic demand practices have moved down. However, due to its continuous production characteristics (high cost of parking and maintenance), the output of raw aluminum is relatively lower than that of other months, with a dynamic surplus.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2020, the output of ten kinds of non-ferrous metals in China was 9.354 million tons, an increase of 2.2% year on year. Among them, the original aluminum output was 5.847 million tons, up 2.4% year on year; the aluminum output was 10.451 million tons, down 13.0% year on year; the aluminum output was 5.906 million tons, down 12.5% year on year.

From January to February, before the traditional Spring Festival, the return to work was delayed due to the superimposed epidemic situation, the delivery and investment were light, and the aluminum price moved down slightly.

March: affected by the outbreak of foreign epidemics, the crude oil plummeted, the market panic spread, and the metal plate of futures market became loose. After the silver plummeted, the non-ferrous plate fell sharply. Based on the panic sentiment in the capital market and the pessimistic demand expectation in the market, the aluminum price has moved down sharply.

Rising cost factors

At present, the price of aluminum ingots touches the cost of some manufacturers. Since late March, there have been about 6 domestic enterprises (including the plan) that have concentrated on production reduction and maintenance, affecting the capacity scale of 445000 tons / year. Although in the first quarter, Inner Mongolia Mengtai, Inner Mongolia Guyang, Guangyuan Zhongfu (phase I), baikuangtianlin, Yunnan Aluminum Heqing (phase II) and other enterprises have a total capacity of about 1.1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum put into production, the expected operating rate will not be too high.

Expected market outlook

According to the historical price trend, the current price is not high and the cost is strongly supported. In the second quarter, the demand is expected to turn warm. It is expected that the near-term rate will be stable and strong.

1、 Overall trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the overall trend of domestic PE market continued to decline this week, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market did not improve. As of March 24, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6400 yuan / ton, down 3.52% from the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h in East China was about 7412.5 yuan / ton, down 2.31% from the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S in East China was 6883.33 yuan / ton, down 3.5% from the beginning of the week; the big PE varieties dropped by 50-400 yuan / ton on Wednesday.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PE market continued to decline as a whole, with petrochemical continuously reducing the factory price and weakening the market cost support. This week, the plastic futures market fell sharply, which significantly suppressed the market mentality. The shipping of merchants continued to be blocked, with a pessimistic attitude, and the overall decline was reported. Downstream continued to wait-and-see attitude, in addition to part of the factory on-demand replenishment, market inquiries less, the current market atmosphere continues to be weak.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, Liansu overall fell this week by a large margin. On March 27, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2005 was 5795, the highest price was 5820, the lowest price was 5560, the closing price was 5650, the former settlement price was 5890, the settlement price was 5685, down 240, down 4.07%, the volume was 418489, the position was 152270, and the daily position was increased by – 18223. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

As of February 27, the total output of domestic polyethylene enterprises was 1.41 million tons, a decrease of 252300 tons compared with January. Among them, the output of HDPE is 578900 tons, LDPE is 206800 tons and LLDPE is 624300 tons.

3、 Future forecast

The trend of international crude oil is weak, and futures fall sharply, which depresses market mentality. In terms of petrochemicals, most of the factory prices have been lowered, and the market cost support has been weakened. At present, the downstream is cautious. In addition to just need to take delivery, the factory mainly focuses on wait-and-see. At present, the petrochemical inventory is at a medium high level, and the sales pressure is still there. It is expected that the weakness will continue in the near future.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic butadiene market is still in a weak downward trend. According to the prices monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 5845 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the week was 5578 yuan / ton, down 4.56% in the week, down 11.71% month on month, down 35.10% year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic butadiene market is still weak, and the supply price of the northern export manufacturers is gradually declining in the week. In addition, the low-cost transaction news in East China repeatedly came out, dragging merchants’ mentality to continue to be bearish. Due to the impact of public health events, the shrinking terminal demand in the European market led to the excess supply of butadiene, the price of FOB fell sharply, and there are many sources of goods to offer to the Asian market, bringing some drag on the Asian and Chinese market. The domestic butadiene supply is abundant and the downstream synthetic rubber inventory is high under pressure. The weak market supply and demand leads to the low downstream inquiry intention. The low price transaction news in East China drags the market center down. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Province is 5450-5500 yuan / ton; the delivery price in East China market is 5200-5400 yuan / ton. Although some businesses are offered slightly higher due to the high cost of warehouse holding, it is difficult to have a single support temporarily.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s butadiene price in East China has been reduced by 800 yuan / ton to 5700 yuan / ton in total; Liaotong chemical’s 260 tons of butadiene have been auctioned at a base price of 5310 yuan / ton, of which 208 tons have a trading range of 5310-5318 yuan / ton, and the rest 52 tons have been auctioned; Dalian Hengli’s 140000 ton / year butanediene unit is in normal operation, with a price drop of 700 yuan / ton to 5010 yuan / ton on a month-on-month basis; Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, has 70000 tons/ The annual oxidative dehydrogenation unit is in normal operation with the quotation of 5000 yuan / ton, and there is a little space for negotiation in the actual order; the 100000 ton / year oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Jiangsu silbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down on February 28 or so, and the restart time may be postponed to the middle of April; the 64000 ton / year butadiene unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal Co., Ltd. will be shut down from March 13 to 20, and now it is in normal operation with the quotation of 4820 yuan / ton; the butadiene unit of Maoming Petrochemical Co., Ltd The maintenance plan may continue to be postponed to the first ten days of May. At present, its 10000 ton / year plant will be shut down.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: this week, the mainstream factory prices of domestic sales companies of styrene butadiene rubber have been falling, with a cumulative decline of 700 yuan / ton. The main factory supply price of domestic styrene butadiene 1502 dropped to 8500-8700 yuan / ton. The start-up rate of styrene butadiene unit is stable around 5.80%; Qilu, Yangzi, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua, Weitai and Bridgestone styrene butadiene units are all in normal operation; Shenhua styrene butadiene unit continues to reduce the negative operation; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber units continue to stop.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the factory price of domestic mainstream sales company gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell, with the mainstream drop of 800 yuan / ton; the main factory supply of domestic gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell to 8200-8600 yuan / ton, only the second wave of decline in other regions was not followed in Northwest China. The operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was maintained around 6.0%. During the cycle, Yanshan cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant operated in a negative way, while other mainstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants operated normally. The overall operation rate of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber industry was slightly lower than that of the previous cycle.

 
3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, there is no significant decline in the start-up of major downstream industries, and there is rigid demand in the northern downstream. On the negative side, the domestic spot market is still abundant, the European market supply is under pressure, the inventory of the downstream rubber industry is high, and the external market is full of low price news. At present, the domestic butadiene spot supply is abundant, but the export situation of downstream products market is not good, and the high inventory of synthetic rubber industry in the middle end of the industrial chain is under pressure; moreover, the European butadiene supply is abundant recently, and the market is full of low-price news, which obviously drags the mentality of domestic merchants. At the same time, the news of low price transaction spread in the domestic market, dragging the overall decline of butadiene market. The supply and demand fundamentals of internal and external market are hard to be supported by good news in the short term. Butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market continues to be weak downward trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the guidance of internal and external market transaction news.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic ABS market continued its previous weak trend in the middle and late March, and the spot market price decreased. As of Thursday, March 26, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 11500.00 yuan / ton, down 5.35% from the average price level of the second weekend in March.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: ABS upstream, the recent styrene market decline. Domestic styrene prices fell in the first half of the month due to bad news from crude oil chemical industry. To the second half of the month is directly reflected in the weak trend of the cost side dragging down the price of styrene. At present, the market supply is good and the social inventory is high. Downstream still maintain just need to take goods, business confidence is insufficient, bearish aftermarket. The market lacks strong support and on-site trading is generally low. It is expected that styrene will continue to operate in a weak way in the near future;

In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile was also affected by the negative news of crude oil chemical industry. In addition, new production capacity has been added in the near future, which made the site bearish. The downstream return rate is lower than that before the festival, and just need a small amount of goods, so it is difficult to improve in a short time due to the shrinking demand. At present, the market is lack of positive boost, and the mentality of the industry is low. It is expected that the market of acrylonitrile will not improve in the near future;

In recent years, the domestic butadiene market has continued a weak downward trend. The macro negative news such as the sharp drop of crude oil has led to the cautious attitude of domestic businesses. The downturn of downstream inquiry has dragged down the pressure on supplier prices, and the overall market focus has continued to fall. Short term terminal demand has a short-term impact on the overall industry chain. Although there is no significant negative sign of the main synthetic rubber in the downstream, the narrowing of the price gap leads to poor expectations in the later period, and the atmosphere of butadiene spot market is low. It is said that some of the spot goods in East China last week have export plans, but under the pressure of the economic environment, it is difficult to fundamentally ease the contradiction between supply and demand of spot goods; in addition, the transaction of northeast goods is not smooth, and the short-term market trend is short. Short term domestic butadiene market weak downward trend is hard to change, it is suggested to pay attention to the news and spot transaction guidance;

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the second half of March, the ABS market continued to decline, and the decline in various brands of spot goods expanded. Cost side of the upstream three materials are not good in the near future, the support for the cost side is weak. At present, the spot supply of ABS is relatively sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak. The news outside the market was short, and the confidence of the merchants was hit, so they actively reduced the price of goods. It is expected that domestic ABS prices will continue to weaken in the near future.

1、 Price trend

In recent years, monoammonium phosphate has been rising for several consecutive days, up more than 10%, and this month has risen 7.02%. So far, the commodity index of monoammonium phosphate on March 22 is 71.41, which is flat with that of yesterday, 29.18% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and 15.01% higher than the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: the operating rate of enterprises has been greatly increased, and Hubei enterprises have started to operate in succession. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2150-2250 yuan / ton. The market in Henan province maintains stable operation. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% ammonium powder is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1850-2100 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the sulfur market has risen sharply recently. Hubei phosphate fertilizer manufacturers started one after another, the supply of phosphate fertilizer increased, fertilizer spring ploughing led to the improvement of sulfur demand, effectively boosting the overall confidence of the market. The enthusiasm of the downstream market entry procurement is weakened and mainly on demand, the buyer and the seller intend to keep the price difference, and the on-site trading and investment are mostly stuck on the sidelines. In addition to the price stabilization of individual refineries, the prices of refineries in other regions are increased according to their own shipping situation. This week, the phosphorus ore market fluctuated slightly, and the overall stable operation is the main factor. At present, the phosphorus ore market in Guizhou has basically recovered, but the operating rate of production enterprises is not high, and low and medium load production is mainly for self use.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 11th week of 2020 (3.16-3.20), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are isopropanol (26.40%), acetic anhydride (6.37%) and dichloromethane (5.38%). There are 39 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 17.60%), chloroform (- 15.79%) and crude benzene (- 14.52%). This week’s average was – 1.62%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, the price of monoammonium phosphate has reached its peak at present, and the sharp rise in raw materials has gradually stabilized. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer is lower than that of last week. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will be stable in the later stage, and the possibility of rising again is low or gradually falling. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw materials and demand.