1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, today’s comprehensive market price is 13766.67 yuan / ton. The PC market is in a weak shock, the downstream market maintains rigid demand, and the real deal is limited.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: affected by foreign public events, the international economic situation is becoming more and more severe. Domestic downstream factories are slowly recovering from the construction, and they are cautious in receiving goods. The pressure on the supply side is greater, the price of raw materials is significantly lower, the cost pressure is greatly increased, and PC enterprises are low in starting, which is difficult to stop falling, and difficult to be relieved in a short period of time.

Industry chain: domestic bisphenol a market continues to break down. At the beginning of the week, due to the sharp drop of crude oil price, which depressed the trading atmosphere of the market, the buyer often held a short forecast on the future market, few active enquiries asked about the price, and the supply and demand fundamentals were still weak. The overall construction of downstream epoxy resin and PC plants was insufficient, traders and factories were under pressure, and most of them focused on low sales. In addition, upstream phenol and acetone negotiations continued to decline, the cost support was weak, and the market was lack of profit Good support, the decline expanded.

Industry: on March 15th, the PC commodity index was 57.84, unchanged from yesterday, down 54.11% from the highest point 126.05 (2017-12-18) in the cycle, and up 8.60% from the lowest point 53.26 on 03 / 02 / 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

PC analysts of business club think: in the short term, domestic PC market is mainly weak.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

The average price of acrylic acid enterprises as of March 13 was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a three-month cycle, down 10.29% year-on-year, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list. On the 13th, the mainstream price of acrylic acid Market in China was around 6800-7600 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: acrylic acid market is stable this week. The industry started at a low level, downstream demand continued to pick up, market trading was orderly, and the mainstream price of acrylic acid market remained stable. At present, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. is 7600 yuan / ton for puic acid, 8100 yuan / ton for refined acid; the price of acrylic acid of Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6800 yuan / ton for puic acid, 8500 yuan / ton for refined acid; the price of acrylic acid of Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6700 yuan / ton for puic acid, 7500 yuan / ton for refined acid; the specific transaction price is actually discussed; the price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is stable , mainly for contract and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong region has recently dropped. As of March 12, the market turnover was 6400-6650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 6400-6450 yuan / ton. Influenced by the OPEC meeting in the past few days, the international crude oil fell sharply in a row. Influenced by the economic stimulus plan and the US manufacturers’ spending cuts, the US crude oil jumped another 8% on the 10th. On the 11th, the international crude oil fell slightly. Due to the low production and inventory of propylene plants, the market supply is not rich, so the previous propylene market fell less. It is expected that the propylene price will fluctuate slightly in the later period, and the future will be affected by the crude oil It has a great impact.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are two kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on March 12, 2020, among which there is one kind of commodity with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top two commodities are liquid ammonia (6.10%) and phenylethylene (0.53%). There are 18 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were crude benzene (- 9.00%), aniline (- 4.56%) and dichloromethane (- 4.00%). The average price of this day was – 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid in the business community believe that the price of raw material propylene has declined in the near future, and the cost is also weakened in the face of acrylic acid support. With the support of supply and demand, it is expected that in the short term, acrylic acid market will be consolidated and wait-and-see operation, and more attention should be paid to raw material prices and transactions in the mainstream market.

1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: melamine market was stable on November 11. Melamine operation rate is less than 60%, terminal demand recovery is slow, gas buying is light, and manufacturers’ sales are under pressure. According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the mainstream price of melamine market in China was around 5100-5600 yuan / ton on the 11th, which was the same as that of yesterday. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5300 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5100 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

On March 11, the melamine commodity index was 63.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.20% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2011-09-18), and up 11.99% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: the upstream liquid ammonia market is rising recently. At present, when the market is under a small supply pressure, the demand recovery leads to a small peak in the peak season, and the manufacturer’s operating rate increases. With the downstream manufacturer’s operating rate getting higher and higher, the liquid ammonia inventory pressure is relieved to a certain extent. It is expected that the downstream nitrogen fertilizer production will expand with the coming of the peak season of spring ploughing, and the short-term market is expected to maintain Keep a moderate trend, and prices will stabilize in the medium and long term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on March 11, 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquid ammonia (2.50%), ammonium chloride (2.19%) and fluorite (0.99%). There are 19 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ox (- 10.71%), hydrobenzene (- 4.05%) and acetone (- 4.00%). The average price of this day was – 0.37%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business club, the rising raw material price has a certain supporting role in melamine cost, but the downstream consumption speed is not enough to follow up. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by low consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 563 yuan / ton on March 2, 573 yuan / ton on March 6, and the price rose 1.79% in the week. Up to now, the ammonium sulfate commodity index on March 8 is 47.98, which is flat with yesterday, 54.86% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 30.91% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, with the promotion of agricultural demand, the market of ammonium sulfate is getting better. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-680 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-680 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-730 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-680 yuan, that in North China is 420-670 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-670 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: it is the peak season of spring ploughing and fertilizer use, and the price of raw materials has increased. The lower reaches of the compound fertilizer enterprises have increased the operating rate, good trading and investment atmosphere, high enthusiasm for procurement and rising market of compound fertilizer. In addition to the north of the lake, the logistics and transportation have improved and the delivery is smooth. Both upstream and downstream are good support, and the ammonium sulfate Market is developing well.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 9th week of 2020 (3.2-3.6), there are 23 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are sulfur (8.38%), sulfuric acid (7.78%) and propylene (4.36%). There are 30 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 1.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are epichlorohydrin (- 6.28%), mixed xylene (- 4.46%) and ethanol (- 4.39%). This week’s average was – 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association believe that at present, the demand for agriculture is increasing, and the market of ammonium sulphate is picking up. The coking grade ammonium sulfate rose slightly and operated in shock. The internal grade ammonium sulfate was adjusted within the range, and the domestic demand increased. It is expected that the market of ammonium sulfate will rise in the short term.

This week (3.2-6), the liquid ammonia market continued to rise slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of the domestic liquid ammonia market rose significantly compared with that in mid February, and since the rebound began in late February, the range has exceeded 10%, In particular, the prices of some enterprises in the North continued to rise. Last week, some manufacturers slightly increased their prices by 50-100 yuan / ton. This time, liquid ammonia has increased by 500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business association, the increase of liquid ammonia this week was 0.36%.

Since February, affected by the epidemic situation, the price of liquid ammonia has continued to decline, mainly because the dealers’ return rate is not high, the market has entered an empty window period, and they are generally in a closed state. In addition, the main problem is that the transportation is not smooth, the transportation of liquid ammonia has also entered a bottleneck period, the long-distance and high-speed transportation is limited, and multiple factors are superimposed, resulting in the weak market of liquid ammonia. However, in the past two weeks, we can see that On the one hand, the operation rate of liquid ammonia enterprises remained normal, and the manufacturers did not have much inventory in the early stage. Moreover, according to a manufacturer in Shandong, at present, the traffic has been basically solved, the manufacturer’s shipment is unblocked, and the demand of the downstream is slightly warmed up. In the spring farming season, the downstream fertilizer manufacturers increase their purchase, and the up-down linkage liquid ammonia market finally ushers in the warming up period. The main quotation in Shandong is 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

Continued last week’s upward trend, this week’s stable operation of liquid ammonia in North China led to a better market driven by the recovery of demand. In the early stage, the conversion of urea and the control of ammonia led to the low level of ammonia in the enterprise, and the enterprise’s inventory pressure was relieved. This week’s price slightly increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in North China was 2700-2900 yuan / ton up and down.

This week, the price of liquid ammonia in Northwest China is still stable. Compared with last week, the quotation of enterprises has not changed much. Some enterprises have increased their quotation slightly. The main transportation problems have been alleviated obviously. On the one hand, the production has been stable at present, and the ammonia volume of enterprises has increased slightly. On the other hand, the commencement of downstream enterprises has also improved, and the delivery speed and strength of manufacturers have increased significantly compared with the beginning of the month. The price of Northwest mainstream is 2500-2600 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the current market is a small peak in the peak season driven by the recovery of demand, and the manufacturer’s operating rate increases. With the increasing operating rate of downstream manufacturers, the pressure on liquid ammonia inventory has been alleviated to some extent. It is expected that the downstream nitrogen fertilizer production will expand with the coming of the peak season of spring ploughing, and the short-term market is expected to maintain a moderate trend, Prices will stabilize in the medium and long term.