1、 Price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to move forward steadily this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1693.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1693.33 yuan / ton, up or down by 0.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in the late March, all domestic sodium metabisulfite enterprises are basically back to work. Affected by the continuous weak downstream demand, the domestic sodium metabisulfite inventory has increased after the manufacturers return to work. The overall delivery and investment of domestic sodium metabisulfite market is light. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium metabisulfite is 1600-1850 yuan / ton. In order to speed up the shipment, some enterprises slightly reduce the factory price, and mainstream Enterprises The quoted price of the industry is around 1600 yuan / ton. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry chain: this week, the price of soda ash is stable, the price of sulfur continues to rise, and the slight rise in raw material cost will support the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price is under pressure in the short term due to weak downstream demand, increased inventory and other factors.

1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of March 20, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9760 yuan / ton, with a 1.91% month on month drop in price and an 8.07% year-on-year increase.

2、 Market analysis

Product: domestic BDO market weakness consolidation this week. The factory has a strong attitude towards the market, reducing the load or parking, and the price is on the high side. However, due to the recent collapse of crude oil and the spread of foreign epidemics, the demand of domestic and foreign terminal industries continues to be depressed, which leads to the accumulation of inventory in most downstream industries and short-term negative growth without support. The start-up of the downstream PBT was slow, and other downstream PBT was also in low negative operation. Under the cost pressure, the downstream market pressure is serious, and more rigid spot small single replenishment is needed. At present, there is abundant spot supply in the field. With the restart of Meike, there is strong bearish mood in the middle and lower reaches. Some manufacturers are in the shipping mentality and negotiate with each other in a narrow range. In order to reduce the inventory pressure and stabilize the price, some factories released the information of parking and maintenance again, but the downstream game mentality is still the same.

In terms of devices, this week, crane coal load is 50%, and there is a maintenance plan in April; Kaixiang recently stopped for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain; Meike started on March 13, and the load is 50%; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device is in normal operation, The restart time of other devices is to be determined; Dongyuan will stop for maintenance on March 5, and it is expected to start in early April; Tunhe will stop for 50% of the first phase, and the second phase; Ronghe will stop for maintenance on February 28; Xinye will load 40%; Shaanxi chemical will load 60%, and there will be maintenance plan at the end of March and early April.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the overall methanol market this week showed a downward trend, with a general trading atmosphere. The main stream of Inner Mongolia fell to 1450-1550 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange; the upstream factories in Northern Shaanxi were forced to make profits under the pressure of shipment, and the current main stream transaction fell to 1450 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange nearby, providing 40-50 yuan / ton for large orders of olefin factories; the main stream of Guanzhong region at the beginning of the week was reported to 1500-1650 yuan / ton, the low-end shipment was smooth, the high-end transaction was not completed temporarily, and the lower half of the week continued to decline along with the downstream receiving prices such as northern Shandong As a result, the atmosphere in Guanzhong is becoming weaker, and the current mainstream negotiation is further reduced to around 1500-1570 yuan / ton; the mainstream in Xinjiang is down to around 1050 yuan / ton, and some downstream areas have bottom reading psychology, so the delivery and investment atmosphere is better than that of last week. The main source of goods outside Xinjiang is Baofeng and other olefin factories, and Xinjiang to Ningxia is sent to reference 1430 yuan / ton.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market first stabilized and then fell. After a rapid decline in the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the early stage, the production enterprises are facing a loss situation. The enterprises hold a stable wait-and-see position. The ex factory price in Wuhai area is maintained at the mainstream of 2600 yuan / ton. However, in recent years, the inventory in Wuhai area has gradually accumulated. Affected by the inventory pressure, the factory price of domestic calcium carbide began to decline in recent days. However, through investigation, it can be found that the arrival volume of calcium carbide in North and central China has obviously contracted. There are two main reasons. One is the contraction of supply of goods in the Urumqi League this week, and the other is the list of market trade supply and investment atmosphere.

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil plummeted again, the epidemic spread abroad, domestic and foreign terminal demand was limited, downstream construction continued to be weak, and a large number of inventories accumulated, negative and no power. At present, although the on-site construction is at a low level, the BDO inventory in the early stage is difficult to digest, and Merck is restarted, with incremental expectations; the mentality of the middle and lower reaches is intensified, and the market price is still depressed, but the supplier is strong, and the game continues. In order to reduce the inventory pressure and stabilize the price, some factories released the information of parking and maintenance again, but the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to ease. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to be in a weak situation next week, with risk reduction, focusing on the main downstream start-up and changes in the mentality of suppliers and demanders.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 in carbide process), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on March 18 was 6187.5 yuan / ton, down 0.6% compared with the previous day, and down 2.56% compared with the same period last year. On March 18, the PVC commodity index was 78.41, down 0.47 points from yesterday, down 21.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 34.56% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: the domestic PVC market fell slightly on Wednesday, mainly digesting the previous gains. The trend of PVC futures affected by the recent crude oil market slump is not good, but for the time being, the impact is not significant. The spot market volatility is limited and slightly volatile, but the market trading is weak. With the end enterprises returning to work one after another, the demand has increased to a certain extent, but some enterprises are still facing difficulties in returning to work, the overall operating rate is low, most of them are just in need of replenishment, the weak demand end is difficult to form a strong support for the PVC market, and the manufacturer’s sales pressure is still great. PVC enterprises have gradually increased the operating rate, continued to increase inventory, abundant supply in the market, and the situation of oversupply is hard to change in a short period of time. At the same time, the cost end of calcium carbide is strongly supported. PVC enterprises are mostly in a stable price mentality and wait-and-see attitude. Some enterprises cut prices and make profits in shipment. However, the market as a whole is still in a downturn, and it is difficult to get a good boost. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of March 18, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 5950-6350 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 6080-6210 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is about 6080-6230 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6050-6100 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.

In terms of Futures: the main PVC v2005 contract fell in shock, closing at 6055 yuan / ton, compared with – 110 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume was 120748, + 44667; positions were 152462, – 7638, base difference was 95 yuan, + 100 yuan; 5-9 price difference was – 120 yuan, – 0 yuan.

Industry chain: on March 16, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply, falling below $30 per barrel again, and the main contract was 28.70 yuan / barrel, down $3.03 (- 9.55%). Saudi Arabia and Russia have had serious disagreements over production reduction agreements, which led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices. It fell to its lowest level since 2017. Unable to support the price of ethylene, so business analysts expect the price of ethylene to keep a narrow decline in the future. In terms of calcium carbide, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly, and the future market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region in mid March might fall slightly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on March 18, 2020, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which natural rubber (0.21%) rose. There are 10 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (- 2.86%), styrene butadiene rubber (- 2.69%) and PA6 (- 1.71%). The average price of this day was – 0.76%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club think that the current PVC market is weak and the overall market is slightly depressed. The trend of futures is not good, the awareness of spot price is strong, but the pattern of supply over demand is hard to change in a short time, and the price is slightly reduced and interest is shipped. It is expected that the PVC market will not improve in the short term. The future market should pay more attention to the trend of crude oil, futures and downstream resumption.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of March 18, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4900.00 yuan / ton, and the market of domestic DMF was weak.

2、 Market analysis

Products: domestic DMF manufacturers still have inventory pressure, and they are actively shipping. With the release of public events, the delivery speed has increased. Early orders are mainly delivered, the number of new orders is limited, the downstream just needs to purchase is mainly, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is not reduced.

Industry chain: the upstream methanol market negotiation is light, weak decline, most enterprises wait-and-see, overseas public events continue to curb demand, oil price plummeted nearly 4-year low, methanol shows weak decline in the short term.

Industry: on March 17, the chemical industry index was 680, down 2 points from yesterday, 33.07% from 1016 (2012-03-13), and 13.33% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

4、 Future forecast

DMF analysts believe that the short-term DMF market maintains a weak and downward operation. (the above prices are provided by the main DMF manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the business DMF analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market was relatively weak in the second week of March, and the spot price was reduced. As of Monday, March 16, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 7116.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.93% compared with the average price on Monday, March 9.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: on the upstream side, influenced by OPEC meeting and international market game recently, the news of international crude oil’s repeated downgrading has obvious negative effect on propylene. According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic market price of propylene has fluctuated since March, with a weak trend in the near future. Due to the low production and inventory before propylene, the previous decline is not significant. However, the crude oil is still volatile, and the downstream trend is not ideal. It is expected that the propylene price will be affected by crude oil in the later stage, showing a significant downward trend.

Product: at present, the domestic PP market quotation is weak, and the overall waiting atmosphere is still heavy. Petrochemical enterprises are under pressure to reduce the factory price, and the price of the company is up and down. The resumption of work in PP downstream plant is normal, the operating rate is not ideal, and the demand follow-up is weak. Business confidence is not strong, the message face is lack of clear guidance message, traders mostly quote according to their own inventory situation. The delivery is average, and the list of low-cost materials is acceptable.

3、 Future forecast

PP analysts of business club think: the domestic PP spot market in the second week of March is generally weaker than that in the first week, and the upstream propylene price falls, which has poor support for the cost end of PP. The return rate of downstream factories needs to be further improved. In terms of demand, the order follow-up is not timely, and small orders are mainly concluded. Petrochemical plant inventory pressure is large, the industry goes with the market, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that PP market will fluctuate and adjust in the near future.