1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, in January 2020, the price of o-xylene Sinopec contract rose, and the price of o-xylene rose. As of January 7, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6300.00 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that of 6200.00 yuan / ton at the end of December. The price is 7.35% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、

Market analysis:

External offer

Commodity name quotation type port price time

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $860.00/t 2020-1-6

O-xylene CFR China 789.00 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 785.00 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene FOB South Korea 758.00 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $860 / T 2020-1-3

O-xylene CFR China 789.00 USD / ton 2019-12-27

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 775.00 USD / ton 2019-12-27

O-xylene FOB South Korea 758.00 USD / ton 2019-12-27

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $860.00/t 2019-12-27

As can be seen from the table, the price of o-benzene in the external market last week rose in shock. As of January 3, the price of o-benzene in China was 789 US dollars / ton, maintaining stability; the price of o-benzene in Southeast Asia was 785 US dollars / ton, 10 US dollars / ton higher than last week. In January, the external price of o-benzene rose, the price of imported o-benzene rose, the price of port o-benzene rose, and the port inventory is still at a low level. The overall external price rise is good for the future o-benzene.

Factor analysis of industrial chain

It can be seen from the comparison chart of the price trend of o-benzene and mixed xylene that after the year, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated slightly, the price of raw materials of o-benzene decreased, the price of o-benzene rose after the year, the price of o-benzene deviated from the cost, and there was no power support for the rise of o-benzene.

It can be seen from the price trend comparison chart of o-phthalic acid and phthalic anhydride that after the year, the price of phthalic anhydride was weak and stable, the price of o-phthalic acid did not rise and support, and the downward pressure of o-phthalic acid was large.

3、 Future forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business association, thinks that after the year, the cost of o-xylene has declined and the downstream demand has not improved. Why does the price of o-xylene rise and deviate from the cost? The reasons are as follows: the external quotation is firm, and the increase of the external quotation has certain positive support for the domestic price of o-benzene; compared with the price of o-benzene in the same period of previous years, this year’s price of o-benzene is low, the profit of o-benzene manufacturers is small, and there is the power support for the price increase; near the Spring Festival, the logistics and transportation are limited, the manufacturers will prepare goods in advance, the demand will rise in the short term, and the price of o-benzene will have certain benefit Good; highway charging policy changes, transportation cost increases, etc. Generally speaking, the growth momentum of the future market is limited, and there is certain downward pressure. It is expected that the future market will be mainly volatile and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market in December was in a weak downward trend. As of December 31, some spot prices were lower than the beginning of the month. The main offer price of T30S from domestic producers and traders is about 7833.33 yuan / ton, down 6.56% from the beginning of the week.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: according to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the price of propylene in the upstream of PP began to decline at the beginning of December under the influence of the international crude oil “Black Friday” market, and the price has declined all the way, about 400 yuan / ton. After that, the price has remained stable and fluctuated in a narrow range. At the end of the month, the price of the enterprise began to decline again from December 25, about 200 yuan / ton in two days, and the price began to rise at the end of the month. On the upstream side, OPEC’s production reduction policy was extended, and the international crude oil market was consolidated at a high level, but the increase was not large, which had a certain effect on propylene. In the downstream, the start-up of downstream manufacturers gradually recovered, the delivery situation improved, the profit margin was fair, and it also had a certain positive impact on propylene. In general, propylene market fell twice in December, with a total decline of nearly 10%. At the end of the month, it recovered slightly from the annual low price. The downstream operating rate is good and the profit margin is fair.

Products: the cost support is weak, some domestic petrochemical prices are down, the high spot price transaction resistance is obvious, the purchase intention of merchants is low, the continuation just needs to make up the position, and the terminal trading atmosphere is light. The price of PP market fell this month, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market increased. Close to new year’s day, two oil actively go to storage, inventory to maintain a low level. Under the current situation of spot weakness, the lower reaches make up for the low price, and the merchants maintain the low inventory operation. It is estimated that there are 580000-620000 tons in the first warehouse at the beginning of January. At the end of the month, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene enterprises is 96.24%. It is expected that the operating rate of domestic polypropylene enterprises will rise in early January.

3、 Future forecast

PP analyst of business club thinks: PP analyst of business club thinks: domestic PP price fell in December in general. The upstream propylene market is weak and the cost side support is poor. Downstream factories buy at low price and continue the strategy of rigid demand. The price of petrochemical plant has been lowered, the confidence of the operators is insufficient, the quotation keeps falling, and the operation is cautious. It is expected that PP market will continue to adjust at a low level in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the change of propylene market at the cost end in the near future.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: “W” trend in the first half of MTBE market in 2019

According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE on December 31 was 5383 yuan / ton, 5.97% higher than 5080 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of domestic MTBE market in 2019 is highly related to that of upstream gasoline market, and the price trend is basically the same.

The first half of the year: domestic MTBE kept stable operation from January to May. As of the end of May, the domestic MTBE market price only rose 0.72% to 5116 yuan / ton, while the gasoline price rose 1.79% in the same period. First of all, in terms of crude oil, the overall trade relationship between China and the United States shows a gradual easing trend. In terms of gasoline, gasoline procurement and replenishment operations are basically carried out on demand. Second, in the first half of the year, the MTBE unit operating rate changed little, and the market price went with the market, not affected by the market supply and demand relationship.

Second half of the year: since late May, the price trend of domestic MTBE market follows the change of gasoline market, showing a “W” trend as a whole. The market prices of gasoline and MTBE fell to the lowest level in the second half of the year in the middle of June, down 8.92% and 13.39% respectively, and rose to the highest level in the second half of the year in late September, up 8.33% and 30.57% respectively. By the end of the year, they fell back to the level in the last half of May, up only 0.36% and 5.21% respectively. It can be seen that the price trend of domestic MTBE market is consistent with the change of gasoline market, but the change range of MTBE market price is larger than that of gasoline market. First of all, in May, Dalian Hengli 820000 T / a MTBE plant was started. Because of its large output and low export price, the MTBE market was deeply impacted. In April June, the refinery ushered in the centralized maintenance season. The contradiction between supply and demand in the MTBE market intensified, and the decline in the MTBE market was far greater than that in the gasoline market. Secondly, in September, compared with the gasoline market actively preparing for the golden nine silver ten peak demand season, MTBE market supply is insufficient, the number of export sales of major refineries is reduced. In September, Dalian Hengli MTBE has few export sales, and the import of MTBE is scarce, which leads to the shortage of MTBE.

On the whole, the market price of MTBE in 2019 is closely related to the price trend of the gasoline market and deeply influenced by the supply side of MTBE. It shows its own trend, and the shock range is far greater than that of the gasoline market.

3、 Future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business society, future trade disputes may enter into normalization, crude oil market demand will be restricted, and the price center of gasoline market will fall steadily in 2020. Therefore, in 2020, the price center of MTBE market will follow the price center of gasoline market and the fluctuation range will further shrink.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic refrigerant R22 rose sharply in December. On December 1, the average price of mainstream manufacturers was 16166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month (27 days) was 17333.33 yuan / ton. The market rose sharply this month. On December 27, the R22 commodity index was 104.00, flat with yesterday’s record high in the cycle, up 24.70% from 83.40, the lowest point on October 14, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R22 price in refrigerant market is up this month. The main reason is that the quota of enterprises at the end of the year is limited, the supply is tight, and the market is out of stock. Most manufacturers do not accept new orders basically. Before the main supply, orders are placed, and the price is high and stable. The transaction price of bulk water market of traders is chaotic, and the supply of goods in their hands is tight. The terminal’s demand for refrigerant R22 has not been improved, and the hydrofluoric acid market at the raw material end has remained stable, with general on-site trading and weak support for refrigerant R22. At present, the trend of refrigerant R22 is strong, but there is no market in the market. As of December 27, the average price of refrigerant R22 is around 17333 yuan / ton, and the quotation is mainly about 15500 yuan / ton – 18500 yuan / ton, with refrigerant R22 at a high level.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products rose this month. In the near future, the situation of goods delivery by the manufacturers in the field is general, and the spot supply in the field is normal. The price of domestic trichloromethane of upstream products rebounded to the bottom, the inventory pressure of enterprises was not high, the shipment of enterprises was smooth, the market supply was abundant, the actual order was slightly low, and the price of trichloromethane was expected to decline. The terminal air conditioner manufacturer starts at a low level, with general demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are four kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on December 26, 2019, among which crude benzene (2.15%), ethyl acetate (0.85%) and butadiene (0.54%) are the top three commodities. There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are n-propanol (- 1.85%), propylene (- 1.84%) and 1,4-butanediol (- 1.47%). The average price of this day was – 0.08%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, the price of refrigerant R22 is high and stable, with a small amount of inventory in the hands of dealers and no market in the market. It is expected that the trend of refrigerant R22 will fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 31, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7000 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.

After the carbon black market fell sharply in 2018, it is difficult for the price to rise again. In the first three quarters of 2019, the price fluctuated little and the market did not rise or fall. In 2019, carbon black products in the domestic market fell into a loss, with an average profit of – 200 yuan / ton, the first decline in the past five years. Last year, the average profit was as high as 600-800 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis:

1. Overcapacity. Before 2018, driven by the increased profits of carbon black products, domestic carbon black enterprises expanded capacity in a carpet way but ignored the breakthrough of quality. Under the blind and repeated expansion, overcapacity and low concentration of domestic carbon black enterprises became the main structural contradiction of the industry. There is still a certain gap between domestic carbon black quality and international level. In the second half of 2018, the disordered market competition, high cost and low profit, shortage of enterprise operating capital, weak demand and other contradictions intensified. In 2019, the capacity utilization rate of domestic carbon black industry was only maintained at 5-60%. According to Zhuo Chuang’s statistics, in 2020, the carbon black industry still has a capacity expansion plan of about 580000 tons / ton, and there is no capacity to be eliminated temporarily. Although some carbon black enterprises are temporarily shut down due to various factors, the possibility of restarting at any time in the later period is not ruled out. In 2020, the carbon black industry will face the most severe challenges, such as the endless pace of capacity expansion and weak terminal demand.

2. Low demand. According to statistics, in 2019, the operating rate of China’s tire enterprises is significantly lower than that in 2018. Among them, the average operating rate of all steel tire is 3.66% lower than last year, the average operating rate of half steel tire is 4.51% lower than last year, and the theoretical value of the downstream tire industry’s demand for carbon black is about 116000 tons lower. In terms of rubber products, affected by the decline of automobile sales this year, the orders of rubber products enterprises decreased, some manufacturers stopped production more in this year, and the overall terminal demand was depressed. At present, tires account for about 70% of the total supply market of carbon black. When negotiating with carbon black enterprises for new single price, most of them are bidding or pricing according to formula. There are more carbon black suppliers to choose from, and the bargaining power of carbon black enterprises is weak under the contradiction of supply and demand that supply exceeds demand. Under the background of Sino US trade war, EU’s “double anti” policy and large tire enterprises’ overseas factory building, there is still some room for growth of domestic semi steel tire production in 2020, but the possibility of growth of all steel tire production is relatively small. In 2019, the situation of easy to fall and hard to rise formed by carbon black pricing will ease the demand cycle, and in 2020, carbon black will still play a passive role in the bargaining with downstream enterprises.

3. Low price competition is serious. In 2019, due to the low downstream demand, carbon black enterprises in order to seize the market and increase sales volume, low price competition is serious. From the perspective of carbon black market this year, the overall price is much lower than that in 2018. By the end of December, the price of N330 carbon black was about 5000 yuan / ton, down about 1000 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. The sharp drop in market prices has led to a loss for the carbon black industry.

Fourth, challenges brought by environmental pressure. In 2019, the pattern of large-scale environmental protection has formed and entered the era of intensive cultivation, and in 2020, environmental supervision will be more normalized. In 2020, under the pressure of national supply side structural reform and environmental protection supervision, the construction of main coke enterprises, carbon black enterprises and tire enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other regions will be restricted to varying degrees. Under the deepening of environmental protection supervision, the supply of coal tar and other raw oil is tightened, and the bargaining bottom gas of raw oil purchased by carbon black enterprises is insufficient; the improvement of desulfurization and out of stock devices, environmental protection supervision and production restriction policies will continue to increase the environmental protection cost investment of carbon black enterprises; rubber products enterprises such as tires have limited starting load under the influence of policies such as large gas pollution control, and the bargaining power of carbon black and tire enterprises continues Continue to be weakened.

3、 Future forecast

Carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: carbon black market downturn will continue at the end of the year.

4、 Development strategy

1. Improve environmental protection facilities, save energy and reduce emissions, and develop green circular economy

Carbon black industry belongs to the industry with high pollution and energy consumption. The energy saving and consumption reduction of carbon black production is measured by the total oil consumption, which is the sum of fuel oil consumption and raw material oil consumption. The reduction of energy consumption in carbon black production needs to be improved from the following aspects: first, carbon black enterprises need to adopt efficient collection equipment to improve carbon black yield; second, carbon black enterprises need to continuously improve carbon black production process and equipment to make full use of the waste heat in the carbon black production process to reduce energy consumption in carbon black production; third, the improvement of production devices such as desulfurization and delisting, and the full benefit of tail gas resources It is also of great significance to energy conservation and emission reduction of carbon black industry; fourth, the improvement of carbon black extraction and reuse technology in waste tires has a certain role in promoting the reuse of carbon black.

2. Industrial structure optimization and upgrading

At present, the industrial structure of carbon black industry in China is characterized by many manufacturers, small production scale, and production capacity greater than demand. In the future, improving the industrial capacity concentration and forming a large-scale carbon black group will greatly enhance the competitiveness of China’s carbon black enterprises in the international market. Driven by the supply side structural reform, the carbon black industry will develop in a large-scale and intensive direction. Carbon black enterprises need to strengthen enterprise management, formulate effective development strategies to realize the effective allocation and optimization of resources, establish effective marketing and information systems, and form the integrated development of upstream and downstream integrated industrial chain when funds and conditions permit.

3. Pay attention to brand building, increase R & D and investment in high-performance and special carbon black products, and differentiate competition

China is the largest producer of carbon black, but there is still a certain gap between the quality of carbon black and the international leading level. In the environment of overcapacity and vicious competition of low-quality carbon black, “win by quantity” is obviously not in line with the development law of carbon black market. There are two aspects to improve the independent innovation ability of carbon black Enterprises: first, carbon black enterprises need to change their business philosophy, increase the R & D and investment of low lag carbon black, conductive carbon black, pigment and other special carbon black needed by green tires, and improve the added value of carbon black products to adapt to the changing market demand; second, the continuous R & D of intelligent integration of carbon black production to continuously realize the domestic market demand The high-tech and market globalization of carbon black production technology focuses on strengthening brand building and improving international popularity.