Magnesium market trend

On May 26, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was lowered. At present, the main quotation range is 13150-13400 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the follow-up information of the business agency, the ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 131500-13300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 13250-13350 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 13300-13500 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13200-13300 yuan / ton.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 25th was 13216.67 yuan / ton, up 0.89% compared with the average price of 13100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the average price of the market at the beginning of the year (1.1) was 14166.67 yuan / ton, down 6.71%.

The market of raw material ferrosilicon rises with strong support on cost side

At the supply end, the production of ferrosilicon plant was reduced in May, and most of the plants mainly arranged single production. The market situation is warm. It is reported that a company in fugu, Shaanxi Province recently resumed production of a 40500kva submerged arc furnace, which mainly produces ferrosilicon 75A.

On the demand side, it is reported that Xinyu Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. issued the bidding price of ferrosilicon in May, which was 5800 yuan / ton and 5830 yuan / ton of tax inclusive incoming acceptance, with an increase of 100 yuan / ton, 130 yuan / ton and 1500 tons on a month on month basis; Jiangsu Zhongtian iron and Steel Co., Ltd. published the bidding price of ferrosilicon in May, with an increase of 5750 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, with an increase of 150 yuan / ton and 2000 tons on a month on month basis, with no change on a month on month basis; Shaogang 75B ferrosilicon in May The bidding price is set at 5760 yuan / ton, 140 yuan / ton higher than the price in April, and the purchase quantity is 1000 tons. The bidding price of ferrosilicon 75B of Shaan Steel Group is set at 5657 yuan / ton in May, 121 yuan / ton higher than the price in April, and the purchase quantity is 2350 tons.

It is reported that Lianyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has determined the purchase price of 75B in June, which is 5980 yuan / ton, an increase of 230 yuan and 1800 tons compared with that in May; Liugang in Guangxi has determined the purchase price of 75B in June, which is 6000-6130 yuan / ton, an increase of 180 yuan / ton compared with the average price in May.

The market of raw material ferrosilicon is getting better and the price is rising, which leads to the pressure on the cost side of magnesium ingot, and the cost side is strongly supported.

Weak demand, weak supply and demand

Due to the impact of emergencies, the downstream demand of overseas automobile, die-casting, aluminum plants, etc. is reduced, and the demand of export end is weakened. The demand of exporters for presentation of documents is dominated by on-demand procurement. In the gradual recovery of domestic industry, the demand is dominated by on-demand procurement rather than up and down.

At present, the maintenance willingness of manufacturers is rising. On the one hand, the price is low, and the inventory pressure is appropriately reduced; on the other hand, near summer, the maintenance cycle comes, and the production is reduced.

The market is stable and positive after the price is low and just needs to be supported

Although the downstream demand is weak in the near future, the price of magnesium ingot is at a low level for nearly 4 years. With the gradual recovery of the domestic downstream market and the arrival of the superimposed maintenance season, the rigid demand support is strong. It is expected that the game in magnesium market will intensify in the near future, and the price range is 13100-13600 yuan / ton. In the later stage, pay attention to the change of the downstream market purchase rhythm.

1、 Price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the market of PA66 in China continued to be weak in late May, and the quotations of various brands were weak and stable. As of Friday, may 22, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 19000.00 yuan / ton, which is 0.78% lower than the average price at the beginning of the week.

Analysis of influencing factors:

The market of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 is at a low level and stable, with little change this week. Spot some areas rebounded slightly, but most of the low narrow adjustment. The process of market de stocking is relatively slow, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is still large, and the supply pressure has not been significantly eased, mainly because the manufacturers still maintain a high rate of start-up. Although the upstream raw material pure benzene is relatively strong at present, it does not bring fundamental benefits to adipic acid. The main reason that restricts the price of adipic acid is the low consumption, and the operating rate of downstream plants has not been significantly increased. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, the external demand has also worsened, especially affected by the overseas epidemic, the external demand has decreased, and the pressure on adipic acid export has continued to increase, which does not rule out the possibility that the inventory will continue to rise in the later period.

The upstream adipic acid did not support the PA66 cost side, and the market price of PA66 continued to be weak at the beginning of the second half of this month. In terms of supply, the spot performance of PA66 is sufficient, and the starting load of downstream plants is low. The improvement of water consumption products of PA66 plastic products is limited, and the imbalance between supply and demand is still the main contradiction. There are few inquiries, pessimistic atmosphere and few trading news.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in late May, the domestic PA66 market continued to adjust its weakness. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable at a low level, which generally supports the cost of PA66. The return rate of downstream factories needs to be improved, and the demand for replenishment is very limited. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market is still the same, and the confidence of the operators in the future is insufficient. It is expected that PA66 market will not improve in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

On May 22, crude benzene commodity index was 43.72, up 1.13 points from yesterday, 66.84% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 43.16% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene twice this week, totaling 200 yuan / ton. At present, it has implemented 3350 yuan / ton. On the 21st of this week, the price of crude oil futures market rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was 33.92 yuan / barrel. WTI has reached the high point since March 10. The continuous rise of crude oil has driven up the price of pure benzene. Shandong coking enterprises are affected by the reduction of coal consumption this week. Coking enterprises The production limit is about 30-50%, crude benzene supply is slightly reduced, and the start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises this week slightly rebounded, which has a certain boost to the crude market, but the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is still large, the bidding price of crude benzene enterprises this week is increased, as of Friday, the quotation in Shandong region is around 2790 yuan / ton, about 110 yuan / ton higher than last week.

Industry chain: crude oil: on Thursday, May 21, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at 33.92 yuan / barrel, or 0.43 USD. Brent crude oil futures market rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at US $36.06/barrel, or US $0.41. This is also the sixth day for crude oil to continue to rebound, and WTI has reached a high since March 10. The main reason is that the reduction of production has suppressed the contradiction between supply and demand in the oil market under the pressure of the epidemic. Pure benzene: the mainstream price of 3375-3450 yuan / ton of pure benzene in East China is 95 yuan / ton higher than last week; the mainstream price of pure benzene in Shandong is about 3455-3550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 95 yuan / ton higher than last week.

3、 Trend Forecast:

According to the business community, the oil price is still at a relatively low level in history. The recent continuous rebound is due to the easing of the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil. However, the current market demand is still weak and in the process of gradual recovery. In the short term, the oil price will continue to fluctuate. In terms of pure benzene, the downstream lacks support. It is expected that the market of pure benzene will mainly fluctuate in the short term. Affected by this, it is expected that the crude benzene market will maintain consolidation and mainly focus on the future crude oil trend.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of lithium carbonate is in a weak position in the near future. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on May 20 was 41200 yuan / ton, down 1.90% compared with April 20 and 7.21% compared with January 1; the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on May 20 was 45200 yuan / ton, down 3.21% compared with April 20 and 11.37% compared with January 1. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 38000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 42000-48000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the data in the large list of business agencies, the price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream market has been lowered recently (5.11-5.19). By the end of 19 days, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 55666.67 yuan / ton, down 2.34% compared with May 1, with a half year cycle, down 17.73% year on year.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 19, 2020, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase rate are hydrogen peroxide (7.11%), isopropanol (5.17%) and R22 (4.49%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are light soda (- 3.75%), formic acid (- 2.42%) and phosphate rock (- 1.67%). The average price of this day is 0.36%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business club, the current downstream demand is weak, the market turnover is limited, and the price is slightly lower. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will be adjusted at a low level in the short term.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, at present, the domestic bromine market is in a weak and stable operation, and the enterprise quotation is maintained at about 30111 yuan / ton, down 13.97% from the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: at present, domestic bromine production enterprises have been operating at a high level, with an overall operating rate of about 70%, abundant spot supply in the market, a certain amount of enterprise inventory, but within the normal range, the market demand for downstream flame retardants is soft, the industry starts poorly, and the price support for bromine is insufficient. At present, mainstream bromine enterprises offer about 29500-30000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at present, the upstream market of bromine varies in strength and weakness, among which the sulfur market keeps stable operation, at present about 513 yuan / ton; the sulfuric acid market stops falling and stabilizes, at present about 297 yuan / ton; the caustic soda market is stable in the middle and upward exploration, at present about 487 yuan / ton; the soda market is weak operation, at present 1333 yuan / ton left and right. The overall operating rate of the downstream flame retardant market of bromine has declined. Affected by the epidemic situation, the export end support is not good, the buying atmosphere in the industry is general, the starting of pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates and other industries is flat, and the overall demand is soft.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analyst of business association, at present, the domestic bromine enterprises have started steadily, and the bromine output is rising steadily. Although the quantity of imported bromine is declining, the price support for domestic bromine is limited. Because the downstream flame retardant market demand is not getting better, the bromine market has a trend of oversupply, and it is expected that the domestic bromine market will run slightly and stably in a short time.