On April 6, the fluorite commodity index was 110.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.15% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 124.99% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite continues to decline. As of the 7th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3066.67 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant has increased. The on-site mine and flotation plant are gradually back to work, and the supply of fluorite in the field is increasing. Due to the sufficient supply of goods in the field, the price of fluorite continues to decline. In addition, the price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid is declining. For fluorite market, purchase on demand The market price of fluorite declined. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream procurement of the terminal is not active, resulting in the continuous decline of market price. As of July 7, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2900-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2900-3100 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite in the field continued to fall.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is declining. As of the 7th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10730 yuan / ton. The decline in the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. In addition, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. For fluorite, it is mainly purchased on demand, the supply of goods in the site is normal, and the price trend of fluorite is declining. In recent years, the sales of automobile industry has been in a downturn, the market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is poor, the demand for refrigerant has been declining, the domestic R22 supply is sufficient, the domestic market price trend of refrigerant R22 has fallen, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply of goods in the market is normal, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturer stops more, and the demand changes little, in addition to foreign public health affairs The main price of domestic large enterprises is 16000-18000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

On the whole, the market trend of downstream refrigerant industry has fallen, the supply of fluorite has increased, and the recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has declined. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may continue to fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, on March 1, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 10633 yuan / ton, on March 31, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 9000 yuan / ton, and the price fell 15.36% in March.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in March, caprolactam was negatively affected by peripheral news of crude oil and chemical industry, and its price fell in the whole month. The price center of pure benzene at the cost end continued to move down and the port inventory accumulated. Imports of pure benzene fell sharply, the market negative mentality is heavier. Downstream products are dragged down by weak terminal demand, and inventory release is slow. At the same time, the upstream and demand are weakening, and the bad air is superimposed. Settlement price of liquid caprolactam enterprises in March. : the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8200 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the capacity of the manufacturer is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 9300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Industrial chain: in March, with the resumption of domestic production, the overall operating rate of raw material pure benzene picked up. Although domestic public events have been effectively controlled, large-scale outbreaks abroad have led to a sharp decline in crude oil and related energy chemicals. The downstream demand is weak, and the release of pure benzene capacity is blocked; in addition, the external market plummeted, and the low price hit, and the domestic pure benzene fell seriously. However, crude oil is low in price, with less cost constraints and profit margin. In March, the market of PA6 in China fell all the way, with a large price reduction. At present, the price of PA6 in China continues to decline, and the inventory consumption of slicing enterprises is slow. The downstream return to work rate is not high, mainly adopt the strategy of bargain hunting and replenishment. The market atmosphere was negative, business confidence was hit, and the mission was completed by the end of the month. Other sources said that the recent international health events caused panic in Europe, foreign chemical supply difficulties, plasticizer orders were cancelled. There are many difficulties in the industrial chain. It is expected that PA6 market will not improve in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the raw material pure benzene fell continuously in March due to the sharp drop in oil prices, with significant negative cost side. Liquid caprolactam fell sharply, while solid caprolactam fell with liquid. Downstream users lack confidence and demand shrinks. In the short term, the market is difficult to change, and caprolactam market is expected to remain sluggish in April.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continues to decline. As of April 2, the price of phthalic anhydride from ortho phthalic method was 4400 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously, the demand of plasticizer industry is general, and the market of phthalic anhydride continues to decline.

In recent years, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has continued to decline. Due to the impact of the low crude oil price in the early stage, the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material o-benzene has remained low, and the affected price of phthalic anhydride market has continued to decline. In addition, some phthalic anhydride manufacturers still have inventory in the near future, and the delivery situation is poor. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China fell, the downstream factories returned to work slowly, the factory inventory pressure increased, the high-end transactions were blocked, and the market price fell continuously. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 4200-4600 yuan / ton and 4000-4300 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 4300-4700 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers’ prices in the site fall, the downstream construction is not high, and the purchase is mainly on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant starts generally, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride goes along The trend is falling.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec fell to 3800 yuan / ton, the import price of phthalic acid in port area fell, the price of phthalic acid in port area fell, the price of phthalic acid in port area fell recently, the price of phthalic acid in external market fell, the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, the detailed discussion shows that the operation of phthalic acid equipment is basically normal, the supply of phthalic acid is stable, affected by the decline of upstream raw material phthalic acid price, phthalic anhydride City Market prices continued to fall.

In the downstream, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP fell, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of raw material of DOP fell in shock, DOP enterprises operated at low load, and the logistics and transportation recovered gradually in the near future, but DOP manufacturers still had a lot of inventory. DOP price fell, PVC enterprise equipment start low, customer procurement enthusiasm is poor. The main quotation in DOP market is about 5600-5900 yuan / ton, a small amount of market plasticizer is traded, the upstream ox price is significantly lower, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to fall in the later period.

1、 Price trend

Aniline prices have fallen this month, according to a large list of business associations. On March 1, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 7300 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 6800 yuan / ton; on March 31, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 5700 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 5600 yuan / ton. The monthly decline was 18.36%.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Raw materials: pure benzene fell more than in March. On March 1, the listing price of pure benzene was 5100-5500 yuan / ton (average price 5380.2 yuan / ton), and on March 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 2550-3200 yuan / ton (average price 2700 yuan / ton), with a monthly decrease of 49.82%. In March, with the resumption of domestic production, the overall operating rate of pure benzene picked up. Although domestic public events have been effectively controlled, large-scale outbreaks abroad have led to a sharp decline in crude oil and related energy chemicals. The downstream demand is weak, and the release of pure benzene capacity is blocked; in addition, the external market plummeted, and the low price hit, and the domestic pure benzene fell seriously. However, crude oil is low in price, with less cost constraints and profit margin. This month Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene seven times, a total of 2750 yuan / ton. Pure benzene, as a product greatly affected by crude oil, has a significant downward trend. The arrival of pure benzene increased this month, and the port inventory accumulated significantly.

Nitric acid: nitric acid rose after falling this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 1550 yuan / ton on March 1, and 1600 yuan / ton on March 31, with a monthly decrease of 3.23%.

2. Products: in March, with the improvement of domestic social public events, the enterprises resumed production, and the operating rate of aniline enterprises increased. However, the start-up of aniline is slow, the demand for aniline is weak, and the supply and demand are unbalanced. In addition, the cost surface is wide and loose, and aniline is continuously explored. Jinling park on February 12, restart a set of 100000 tons on March 8, Huatai park on March 20-28, and Yangnong Park in Jiangsu Province.

3、 Future forecast

1. Raw materials: foreign pure benzene enters China, and low price supply continues to impact the domestic market. The decline trend of some downstream products is stronger than that of pure benzene, with limited support for pure benzene; and the overall operating rate of downstream enterprises has declined, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased. Overall, the fundamentals are not good, and it is difficult for the short-term pure benzene market to improve substantially.

During the shutdown and maintenance of aniline plant in some enterprises, the supply and demand are temporarily stable. Focus on plant restart and downstream procurement of aniline plant. It is expected that the price of aniline will be stable in the short term, and the price trend in the later period will be affected by supply and demand.

Aluminum market trend

According to the data of business agency, as of March 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 11500 yuan / ton, 14553.33 yuan / ton compared with the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), with a fall of 20.98% in the first quarter, of which the average market price in March fell by 1686.67 yuan / ton, with a fall of 12.79% in the month.

Main factors of stage influence

January to February: affected by the Spring Festival and the domestic epidemic, the upstream and downstream operating rates have moved down, the production capacity has moved down relatively, and the domestic demand practices have moved down. However, due to its continuous production characteristics (high cost of parking and maintenance), the output of raw aluminum is relatively lower than that of other months, with a dynamic surplus.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2020, the output of ten kinds of non-ferrous metals in China was 9.354 million tons, an increase of 2.2% year on year. Among them, the original aluminum output was 5.847 million tons, up 2.4% year on year; the aluminum output was 10.451 million tons, down 13.0% year on year; the aluminum output was 5.906 million tons, down 12.5% year on year.

From January to February, before the traditional Spring Festival, the return to work was delayed due to the superimposed epidemic situation, the delivery and investment were light, and the aluminum price moved down slightly.

March: affected by the outbreak of foreign epidemics, the crude oil plummeted, the market panic spread, and the metal plate of futures market became loose. After the silver plummeted, the non-ferrous plate fell sharply. Based on the panic sentiment in the capital market and the pessimistic demand expectation in the market, the aluminum price has moved down sharply.

Rising cost factors

At present, the price of aluminum ingots touches the cost of some manufacturers. Since late March, there have been about 6 domestic enterprises (including the plan) that have concentrated on production reduction and maintenance, affecting the capacity scale of 445000 tons / year. Although in the first quarter, Inner Mongolia Mengtai, Inner Mongolia Guyang, Guangyuan Zhongfu (phase I), baikuangtianlin, Yunnan Aluminum Heqing (phase II) and other enterprises have a total capacity of about 1.1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum put into production, the expected operating rate will not be too high.

Expected market outlook

According to the historical price trend, the current price is not high and the cost is strongly supported. In the second quarter, the demand is expected to turn warm. It is expected that the near-term rate will be stable and strong.