I. price trend

The market price of ammonium sulphate fell this month, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On October 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 636 yuan / ton, and on October 31, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, with a 3.14% drop in price. So far, the ammonium sulfate commodity index on November 5 is 47.56, down 4.04 points from yesterday, 55.25% from the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.77% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: in October, the main factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Henan is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 520-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 530-600 yuan, and that in North China is 460-550 yuan. Due to the lack of terminal demand, the overall price of domestic coking grade ammonium sulphate was lowered this month, and the price of domestic grade ammonium sulphate was lowered.

Industry chain: the domestic sulfuric acid plants run smoothly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for sulfuric acid procurement rises, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid rises in the future. Sulfuric acid enterprises often issue early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and supply is slightly tight. Compound fertilizer enterprises are stuck in consolidation, cost and price decline, and the industry is lack of confidence in the future market. Close to the conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer, most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in October 2019, there were 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 8 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (25.36%), epichlorohydrin (25.33%) and sulfur (19.54%) There are 56 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 29 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 34.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are nitric acid (- 30.41%), butadiene (- 19.30%) and acetic acid (- 18.84%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.82%.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association, due to insufficient demand of domestic and foreign markets, coking grade ammonium sulfate fell this month, while domestic grade ammonium sulfate fell. In October, the market of ammonium sulfate was weak, and the market trend was not ideal. It is expected that the market of ammonium sulfate in the later period will be dominated by weak shocks.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 5, the latest price of cyclohexanone in China was 7600 yuan / ton, down 16.02% month on month and 41.09% year on year. The domestic market of cyclohexanone fluctuated at a low level.

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers. The shipping level of enterprises is around 7600-7800 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. South China’s cyclohexanone market is weak in operation, and the weakness in the upstream has an impact. The negotiation reference is 7900-8000 yuan / ton. The buying intention tends to be near the low-end, with more low-cost goods, general supply of goods and limited demand for solvents. The market of cyclohexanone in East China followed up the decline in the upstream market, with reference to 7800-7900 yuan / ton for negotiation. A few of the selling prices were slightly higher, the buyer’s intention tended to be near the low end, and the low price was dominated by replenishment on demand. The downturn in the downstream market had a negative impact.

Industrial chain: pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in January, the sales intention of goods is 615-618 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: weak situation of East China pure benzene market was sorted out. The negotiation reference was 5150-5250 yuan / ton, some of the buying was slightly low, and the far monthly negotiation was 5000-5050 yuan / ton. Weak external market had a negative impact on the market, and the continuous decline of inventory restricted the market.

Caprolactam: the US dollar market of caprolactam has been kept in order, the offers of merchants have been temporarily stable, the inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories is light, there are not many actual orders in the market, and the main market negotiation reference is 1330-1350 US dollars / ton. Caprolactam liquid market maintained consolidation, and the main real single negotiated price in East China market was 11400-11500 yuan / ton (delivered by acceptance within 6 months), which was stable compared with last Friday. Caprolactam business offer is temporarily stable, the focus of market negotiation is low-end. Downstream just need to buy mainly, the market trading atmosphere is light.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, rigid demand is relatively stable. On the negative side, the demand is insufficient; the market of downstream products is low; the price of pure benzene is declining. The upstream and downstream continue to maintain a weak position, the solvent market demand is weak, business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the domestic market for cyclohexanone will continue to maintain a weak trend in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the potassium sulphate market continued to decline in October, with the price falling by about 50-100 yuan. The potassium sulphate sales were not ideal, and the prices were difficult to sell, with obvious stability and hidden decline as the main factor.

II. Market analysis

In October, the demand for potassium sulphate was low, and the market sales was not ideal. The operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulphate industry had dropped to nearly 50% during the 11th Five Year Plan period. After that, although there were ups and downs, it was still at a low level. Although there was no big change in the manufacturer’s quotation, the actual transaction prices of a considerable number of manufacturers were determined by the size of orders, and the prices were in disorder. At the beginning of the month, the price of 50 grains offered by Hebei enterprises was about 3050 yuan / ton, while at the end of the month, it dropped by 100 yuan. Some manufacturers said that the price of large orders could still be discussed. The sales of potassium sulphate in Qinghai’s water salt system is poor, mainly because the low-end of Mannheim’s potassium sulphate is basically equal to it, so there is no price advantage.

III. industrial chain

Upstream: the market performance of potassium chloride is poor, and the demand is not increasing. The unexpected high price of India’s large contract did not have a direct and obvious impact on the domestic market of potassium chloride. The port price of potassium chloride remained stable for the time being, and the transaction was still relatively cold. The only good news was that the market bearish sentiment weakened after the confirmation of India’s large contract.

Downstream: the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises is relatively low, and the attention of enterprises to potash fertilizer is not high. Even though the signing of large contracts in India has shifted the industry’s attention, the trend of potash hypertrophy remains unchanged, and the procurement enthusiasm of compound fertilizer enterprises is not high.

IV. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that the demand for potassium sulfate has been unsatisfactory for some time, and the inventory pressure generally increases. Because of the lack of orders, the quotation is not meaningful. Under the increasing inventory pressure, as long as there is a real price, it can be negotiated. On the whole, the cost support is weak, the demand is hard to get better, the potassium sulfate market hit by upstream and downstream is hard to get better in the short term, at least the high-end price will continue to fall.

On October 31, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, which was flat with yesterday’s record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

In October, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China rose, up 8.66%. Some of the devices of ammonium nitrate manufacturers in China were shut down, the supply was reduced, and the price of manufacturers went up. Recently, the supply of goods in the field was tight, and the domestic price kept rising. However, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has not changed much. The downstream purchase is on demand. Due to the impact of environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is rising. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2500 yuan / ton.

In October, the price of concentrated nitric acid fell sharply, down 30.1%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1600 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1600 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1600 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1650 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1600 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance devices have been restarted continuously, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market has increased, and the on-site delivery situation is general. Affected by the negative factors, the price of ammonium nitrate Market has not changed much in mid to late October, and the price of raw material nitric acid has declined significantly, which is a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market.

In October, the overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market was loose, and the unit operating rate of the enterprise was slightly higher. The staggered peak and limited production in Shanxi Province and limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some regions. However, the start-up of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level. As the liquid ammonia plant in Hubei Province enters the recovery period in the middle and late ten days, the price of liquid ammonia has declined. In addition, in the near future, manufacturers in Anhui Province have maintenance plans. In the next month, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises will be reduced, and the local liquid ammonia market may pick up, but nationwide, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is still not optimistic. The upstream liquid ammonia Market as a whole has not changed much, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is not getting better, the market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, and the market price of raw materials falls, so the market price of ammonium nitrate loses cost support. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the demand for ammonium nitrate may rise in the later period, and expect that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period may maintain a high volatility.

In October, the price of domestic rare earth market fell sharply. Influenced by domestic policies and the reopening of Myanmar customs, the trend of domestic rare earth market fell sharply. According to the business society rare earth sector index, on October 30, the rare earth index was 342 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 65.80% from the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and up 26.20% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of October 31, the average price of neodymium, dysprosium, and praseodymium in the rare earth metals in China was 370500 yuan / ton, down 9.08% in October, 2025000 yuan / ton, 12.9% and 660000 yuan / ton, respectively, down 5.04% in October. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 294500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 7.24% in October; the price of dysprosium oxide is 1535000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 17.69% in October; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 355000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 7.19% in October; the average price of neodymium oxide is 296500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 7.20% in October. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 370500 yuan / ton, with a drop of 9.08% in October; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1535000 yuan / ton, with a drop of 17.69% in October.

In October, the price trend of dysprosium terbium series of heavy rare earth dropped sharply. Myanmar has passed the customs, the supply pattern of domestic heavy rare earth market has changed, and the domestic supply has increased. In addition, the domestic demand is limited in the near future, and the domestic price has dropped sharply. In the near future, the domestic policy is still fermenting, which brings some good expectations for the domestic heavy rare earth market.

Since October, the price of light rare earth in the rare earth market has changed frequently. In October, the price of praseodymium and neodymium products dropped sharply, the price of neodymium oxide and praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell sharply. In addition, the downstream demand for light rare earth has not improved significantly. A small amount of replenishment is needed by downstream businesses. The actual transaction price is still at a low level, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. In the middle of October, the market price of light rare earth dropped successively, but 10 At the end of the month, the market price of light rare earth rose, but the increase was very limited. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are weak in purchasing after and before the festival due to the surplus of purchasing before the festival. In addition, the price of rare earth has declined compared with the previous period, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market supply of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, which are in normal supply, and the market price trend of rare earth is declining. In the near future Large enterprise groups in the market are reluctant to sell, rare earth market is general, and trading volume has little change.

In the near future, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts to inspect the rare earth industry. Jiangxi Province has strengthened the supervision of the rare earth industry, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, the supervision group of the State Council went to Jiangxi Province to supervise rare earth enterprises. This supervision focused on the major deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, highlighted the key and difficult issues in the field of economic operation and reform and development, focused on the strong blocking points and pain points reflected by the people and market subjects, and promoted the implementation of various work. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have taken effective measures to rectify and standardize the industry, innovated and improved the relevant management mechanism, accelerated the construction of an industry development pattern with reasonable industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective resource protection and orderly production and operation, effectively utilized the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource, and the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk , people in the domestic arena are waiting for the specific good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts of the business club expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection in China will not be reduced. In addition, the order of rare earth industry will be rectified in China, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will be maintained at a low level. However, the downstream demand for rare earth will not be improved in the near future. It is expected that the market price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will be maintained at a low level, but the market price of light rare earth will be improved.