Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been experiencing weak fluctuations, and spot prices have been generally lowered. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of October 20th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14300 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.54% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has been fluctuating and stabilizing recently. The raw material pure benzene has seen a decline in the market this week, with loose cost support. At the same time, new caprolactam units have been put into production and laid out, and many production lines have resumed work recently, resulting in an increase in supply. Downstream demand is average, resulting in a bearish trend for caprolactam. Overall, there is insufficient support for the cost side of PA6.

On the supply side:

In mid October, the load of PA6 production enterprises was generally sideways, with an average operating rate of around 73% in China. The market supply is relatively flat compared to the previous period, with an increase in on-site supply, but inventory levels are still low, and there is still support from suppliers for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 66% and 81%, respectively. The current willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up is not high, and their acceptance of high priced goods is not good, which has affected the circulation speed of some goods. Market trading is concentrated on low prices, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 chips is weakening.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the PA6 market has declined. The price of caprolactam is weak and stable, and the overall cost support for PA6 is weak. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load and abundant supply. The demand side is cautious in picking up goods, and market trading tends towards the low end. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 19th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the atmosphere in the epichlorohydrin market is weak, and corporate quotations are down. Recently, the price of raw material glycerol has been stable, the market for raw material propylene has risen, and cost support is limited. The supply side capacity utilization rate is around 50%. The main downstream epoxy resin market is weak, with consumption contracts and inventory being the main factors. Downstream buying is mainly to follow up on bargains, and there is a lack of mentality among operators, resulting in an increase in low-priced sources of goods.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on October 18th, the reference price for propylene was 7238.25, a decrease of 0.45% compared to October 1st (7270.75), providing general support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on October 18th was 14133.33, a decrease of 6.81% compared to October 1st (15166.67), which lacks support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that there is temporary support for costs and supply, but the demand side performance is still average. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may operate weakly in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in the supply side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206.67 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1216.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The current price has decreased by 12.68% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, with a slight rebound this week. As of October 18th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1120-1330 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol showed a slight downward trend, with poor cost support. Downstream purchases remained in demand, while transactions in the formaldehyde market were flat, with mixed market fluctuations and consolidation.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has slightly declined, with most coal mines in the main production areas maintaining normal production and sales. Except for some mines that are still under rectification, the overall supply is basically stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors. Affected by the trend of commodities, the methanol futures market fell, and the atmosphere in the mainland market quickly weakened, leading to a decline in the methanol market.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and declining, with poor cost support. Downstream panel factories have maintained demand for procurement, while formaldehyde manufacturers have flat sales. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 17th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 208000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% compared to October 7th.

After returning from the holiday, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has remained stable and fluctuated slightly, and companies have adjusted their prices according to their own situation, with both ups and downs occurring. Recently, upstream spodumene concentrate prices have been operating weakly, with limited support for the lithium hydroxide market. The upward trend in the upstream lithium carbonate market has boosted the mentality of the industry, leading to a slight increase in the lithium hydroxide market. The demand side performance is still average, and the downstream entry mentality is cautious. Market transactions are mainly long-term orders.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on October 16th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 159400.00, a decrease of 0.99% compared to October 1st (161000.00).

According to lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society, there is currently no significant improvement in the demand side, and market transactions are average. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in upstream lithium carbonate prices.

Price trend

In the first half of October, there was a decline in the domestic PA6 market, and spot prices were generally lowered. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of October 16th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14375 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.04% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has decreased after the holiday. The market for raw material pure benzene has weakened, weakening cost support. At the same time, new units of caprolactam have been put into operation, and many production lines have resumed work recently, leading to an increase in supply. Downstream demand has shrunk, resulting in multiple negative effects on caprolactam. Overall, there is insufficient support for the cost side of PA6.

On the supply side:

After the holiday, PA6 production enterprises have generally operated horizontally in terms of load, with an average operating rate of around 73% in China. The market supply is relatively flat compared to the previous period, with an increase in on-site supply and a weakening of supplier support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 65% and 81%, respectively. Terminal enterprises still have some pre inventory raw materials to be digested, and their current willingness to stock is not high, and their acceptance of high priced sources is not good. The circulation speed of some sources of goods has been affected. The market has a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere. Overall, demand side support for PA6 slicing has weakened.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market fell in the first half of October. The price of caprolactam has weakened, and the overall cost support for PA6 has declined. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load and abundant supply. The demand side is cautious in picking up goods, and market trading is relatively light. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to be weak in the short term.