Commodity index: on April 29, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 92.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 14.93% compared with 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 9.99% compared with 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Monitoring found that in April 2021, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China showed a slight fluctuation, the amplitude was less than 1%, with little change. As shown in the figure, on April 1, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1710 yuan / ton, and on April 29, the mainstream price was 1717.14 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.42%. This month, water treatment plants in main production areas of Henan Province experienced intermittent production and production stoppage: due to the requirements of environmental protection policy, all water treatment plants in Gongyi region stopped production for rectification in mid March, and resumed production on a large scale in mid April. During this period, due to the temporary tension of some brands of some plants, the market of small and micro enterprises increased; After the resumption of production, the manufacturers had sufficient inventory, weak market demand, and the market fell with the trend, but there was not much up and down. On the whole, due to strict environmental protection inspection of manufacturers this month, the production enterprises that fail to meet the environmental protection standards stop production and resume production repeatedly. It is learned that some small enterprises have been unable to support the production because of stop production and demand. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict environmental protection inspection; For manufacturers, it is urgent to improve the level of environmental protection technology.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, business news agency data showed that the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China in April was volatile and downward: on April 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 243.33 yuan / ton, and on April 29, it was about 226.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of about 6.85%. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid; On the other hand, the monthly price fluctuation of silica in the lower reaches is no more than 1%, and the price of ammonium chloride is slightly down by 1.34% this month. The overall consolidation is high and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak. To sum up, hydrochloric acid is expected to fluctuate slightly in the near future.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In late April, the price of LPG for civilian use was “on the slide”. After the price fell by 5-6%, the price was basically stable. It is obvious from the trend chart that there is a big contrast with the rising market in early April. Although the price is down a part compared with the first ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is at a relatively high level, the atmosphere of downstream entering the market has warmed up, the manufacturers ship smoothly, and the inventory is mostly at a controllable level. There are still negative factors in the market, international crude oil is in a relatively weak position, and the market demand is expected to weaken due to the rising weather and temperature. Shandong civil gas market is expected to be stable in the short term.

Downstream demand: this month, enterprises are still going through strict inspection of environmental protection. They have stopped production and resumed production for many times. Some enterprises will stop production and rectify again near the end of the month. It is reported that the downstream demand is still average; At the same time, due to the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two sessions, the environmental protection requirements of production enterprises in various industries are more stringent and have long-term sustainability. Many enterprises need to stop production for rectification. In terms of environmental protection, there should be a certain demand for environmental protection products, but the demand for water treatment products may be worse. According to the reports of many enterprises, this year’s demand has been tepid, and they are constantly stopping production for rectification. As a result, enterprises are under great pressure, and some small enterprises may be eliminated.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, under the general trend of inflation caused by the global central bank’s water release, the prices of raw materials are rising in succession. Recently, the epidemic situation in some overseas areas is serious, and under the influence of multiple international factors such as Sino US relations, there may be periodic differentiation in various industries. As for the chemical industry, under the environmental protection policy requirements of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” of the two sessions in 2021, the chemical industry is bound to face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later stage, and the technical requirements of relevant enterprises will also be raised; Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical threshold is constantly improving; The supply side can not avoid being affected by frequent stop production and rectification actions. In the case of large consumption of inventory, the price is expected to rise. To sum up, in the future, the price of polyaluminum chloride will be stable under the condition of general demand and sufficient inventory; The long-term sustainability of environmental protection inspection is bound to aggravate the survival of the fittest of production enterprises. Only by improving the technical level as soon as possible and meeting the environmental protection requirements as soon as possible can enterprises maintain long-term and effective development.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club block list, on April 28, the domestic POM market remained stable at a high level, and the spot prices of various brands fluctuated and adjusted. As of press release, the average offer price of the POM injection molding sample enterprises of the business club was about 15033.33 yuan / ton, up 2.50% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

POM upstream formaldehyde, business community commodity list data show that the average price of Shandong formaldehyde on April 28 was 1370.00 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last year, an increase of 56.87%. At present, a new round of 20 day environmental protection inspection in China is coming to an end. The downstream plate production is expected to increase, and the demand for formaldehyde may rise. However, the price of upstream methanol is increased, the cost is increased, and the profit is reduced in theory. The atmosphere of formaldehyde manufacturers’ stock preparation is relatively general, and the formaldehyde market rises slightly. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong may still rise in the near future.

The upstream price is stronger, and the cost support of POM is stronger than that in the middle of the year. At present, it is in the peak season of maintenance. The tightening of domestic POM supply is beneficial to the site. The enterprise maintains the willingness to make a high report in the early stage. The M90 reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 14500 yuan / ton, and the actual order is negotiated. Yuntianhua M90 ex factory reference price is about 16600 yuan / ton, firm offer for negotiation. The POM unit of Shenhua Ningmei coal works normally. The reference price of mc90 is about 14000 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. With the May Day holiday approaching, the warming up of the downstream goods preparation operation is limited, and the on-site delivery orders are generally small, indicating that the market is in the range of digesting high prices. At the end of the month, the merchant’s mentality is general, the offer is stable, and the shipment tends to follow the market.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: the domestic POM market is in a stable trend after rising recently. The trend of formaldehyde and methanol in the upstream is positive, the cost support of POM is strong, and the improvement of on-site supply is limited. Although the supply side is good for the market, the profits of downstream enterprises are compressed under the pressure of high costs, so the heat of stock preparation before the festival is damaged, and there is no large volume of trading on the floor. It is expected that the POM market will be deadlocked in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of business news agency, the price of sulfur in East China rose this week. The average price of sulfur production at the weekend was 1486.67 yuan / ton, up 2.53% compared with 1450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and down 2.06% compared with the beginning of the month.

This week, the domestic sulfur market rose as a whole. The inventory of refineries in various regions of the country remained low, and the shipment performance was acceptable. The downstream plants entered the market and purchased on demand. The market lacked the guidance of substantive information, and the operators were mainly wait-and-see. During the week, refineries in various regions of China adjusted their prices according to their own shipment situation. In East China, the price of liquid sulfur was increased by 20 yuan / ton, and that of solid sulfur was increased by 20-50 yuan / ton; Solid and liquid sulfur in North China and Shandong increased by 40-50 yuan / ton at the same time, and sulfur market generally went up. As of the 25th, the regional price of sulfur in China is as follows:

region varieties April 25th

East China Sulfur (particle) 1450-1540 yuan / ton

North China Sulfur (particle) 1420-1470 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Sulfur (particle) 1480-1520 yuan / ton

In the downstream phosphate fertilizer market, the prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were weak and stable, the domestic spring ploughing came to an end, the market demand of ammonium phosphate was weakened, the transaction atmosphere was weak, and the future market continued to be stable. In terms of sulfuric acid, the market price in Shandong increased by 2.35% in the week. At present, the main acid enterprises in Shandong stop for maintenance, some sulfuric acid manufacturers are under started, the market supply is tight, the enterprises increase the quotation, the downstream demand is stable, and the later sulfuric acid Market may continue to rise.

According to sulfur analysts of business news agency, the domestic sulfur market is on the rise, and most of the on-site trading is based on demand procurement. In terms of market supply, domestic refinery inventory remains low, and the supply and demand performance is relatively stable. At present, the market lacks substantive information guidance, so the short-term sulfur market is reorganized and operated, and the downstream follow-up situation is concerned.

From April 19 to April 23, 2021, the crude benzene market price decreased, and the domestic ex factory price was 4345 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4775 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly rise of 9.9%.

In April 2021, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was raised five times, and now it is 7300 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7250 yuan / ton. This week, it was raised twice, with a total of 450 yuan / ton.

This week, with the price of pure benzene rising, the domestic pure benzene station reached 7000 yuan / ton. Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene twice in a row, while the price of hydrogenated benzene increased significantly. Next week is approaching the 51st holiday, there is a certain demand for goods preparation in the downstream, and the unsaturated resin in the downstream of pure benzene is currently in the peak season of the industry, the styrene inventory is low, the spot circulation is tight, the market price is firm, multiple positive supports, and the price of hydrogenated benzene has increased significantly. Crude benzene market was supported by high price from downstream, and bidding price rose sharply this week.

In the future, the business community believes that there are many positive factors in the fundamentals, but the current price is relatively high, and the downstream enterprises are slightly resistant. Moreover, the pure benzene inventory in the port is stable at about 110000 tons, and the speed of de inventory is slowing down. In addition, hydrobenzene enterprises have a certain resistance to high price Crude Benzene and a strong price depression mentality, which is expected to be weak in the future.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of April 25, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 80333.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, up 7.11% compared with April 1 and 7.11% compared with March 25. This week, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market maintained a stable operation trend, and the enterprises mainly delivered early orders.

According to customs statistics, in March 2021, China’s lithium hydroxide import volume was 361.5 tons, the import amount of the month was about US $2.45 million, and the average import price of the month was US $6766.73/ton. According to customs statistics, in March 2021, China’s lithium hydroxide export volume was 4769.12 tons, the export amount of that month was about US $10.37 million, and the average export price of that month was US $8465.47/ton.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is in a stable state recently, and most enterprises have not adjusted their quotations. As of April 23, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 87000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 87000 yuan / ton on April 1). On April 23, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90600 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 90600 yuan / ton on April 1).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 16th week of 2021 (4.19-4.23), there were 41 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which 9 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; Crude benzene (9.90%), hydrobenzene (7.63%) and styrene (5.57%) were the top three commodities. There were 17 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and one commodity with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three products were DMF (- 9.01%), dichloromethane (- 3.89%) and TDI (- 3.47%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.72%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business club, the current cost side has some support, and the market atmosphere is acceptable. It is expected that the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.