The domestic methanol market has been consolidated in a narrow range. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market price was 1640 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1632 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 0.46% during the week, a month on month decrease of 0.61% over the same period of last month, and a decrease of 21.89% over the same period of last year.

This week, the domestic methanol consolidation was narrow, the price fluctuation was not big, most downstream enterprises purchased on demand; the traditional downstream demand recovered slowly, environmental protection inspection affected the closure of some formaldehyde plants in Shandong, and the increment of methanol demand was limited.

In terms of industrial chain, formaldehyde: the market price of formaldehyde in East China remained stable, and the mainstream quotation of local enterprises was 920 yuan / ton. In recent years, the formaldehyde Market in East China is mainly stable, and the upstream methanol support is limited, showing a narrow downward trend. Downstream demand is general, formaldehyde prices are expected to fall mainly later.

Acetic acid: according to the monitoring of the bulk data of business agency, affected by the oversupply of market, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline this week. As of August 7, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2516 yuan / ton, which was 3.82% lower than that of 2616 yuan / ton on August 3 at the beginning of the month. At present, there are 2400-2500 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2400-2500 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2550-2600 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2250 yuan / ton in Henan, 2550-2600 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2170 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

DME: in the first week of August, the strong situation of DME market completely disappeared, and it entered the downward channel again. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on August 1 was 2366.67 yuan / ton, and that on August 7 was 2243.33 yuan / ton, down 5.21% on the 7th, up 2.28% from July 1.

On the whole, methanol operating rate is still expected to rise in the later period, and the pressure on the supply side is not reduced. However, the methanol price has been at a low level, and the cost of methanol enterprises has been in a state of loss. The support from the cost side is obvious. Methanol analysts from the business community expect that the methanol market will continue to adjust in a narrow range next week.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 7, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11200 yuan / ton, which was increased by 300 yuan / ton or 2.80% compared with the price at the end of July. Compared with the price on July 1, the average price increased by 733 yuan / ton, or 6.57%. On July 29, the n-propanol commodity index was 100.63, flat with yesterday, down 0.59% from 101.23 (December 12, 2013), and 27.62% higher than the lowest point of 78.85 on November 05, 2015. (Note: period refers to December 1, 2013 to now)

In July, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole was stable and the operation was dominated

In July, the domestic market of n-propanol was stable as a whole, and some dealers adjusted their prices according to the narrow range of inventory, which had little impact on the overall market trend. Downstream demand is fair, n-propanol inventory is low, raw material support market mentality is good, the business offer is firm and stable.

The demand of lower reaches increased in August

In August, the overall inventory of the previous few days was low, the downstream demand was better than that at the end of July, and the shipment volume increased. The dealers mainly kept part of the inventory in the early stage, and the price remained stable. Until the 7th, the market price of n-propanol went with the market, and the quoted prices in many regions increased. The domestic market of n-propanol in Shandong Province increased slightly, and the ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water was 10700-11000 yuan / T At the end of July, it was higher than 200 yuan. The domestic n-propanol market in Nanjing is running smoothly, and the bulk water is around 10800-11100 yuan / T. in Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the normal operation of n-propanol production unit is normal, and the external offer of n-propanol is 11000 yuan / T (bulk water), and the price is the same as that at the end of July. Dealers in different regions still have reservation on the price. It is not easy to monitor the price. As a result, the specific negotiation situation may be different. There are differences in each region. The actual negotiation is the main one. The future market needs to wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment.

In terms of raw materials, in August, the external market of ethylene was stable and fell slightly. At present, on the 6th, the Asian ethylene market remained stable, with CFR Northeast Asia offering 775-785 USD / T and CFR Southeast Asia offering 710-720 USD / T. In the European ethylene market, the price quoted by FD in northwest Europe is 749-758 US dollars / ton, and CIF in northwest Europe is 690-698 dollars / ton. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $343-361 / T. recently, the US ethylene market is mainly up slightly, and the demand is fair.

On crude oil, the US WTI crude oil futures market price fell on June 6, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.95/barrel, down $0.24. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 45.17 US dollars / barrel, down 0.08 US dollars.

Production capacity of n-propanol in China from 2015 to 2019

In 2019, the output of n-propanol in China will be about 92000 tons, and the operating rate will be about 43%. Due to the double effects of long-term shutdown of some units and dumping of n-propanol from abroad, the overall operating rate of n-propanol industry in China has always remained at a very low level. In the future, it is hoped that with the implementation of the anti-dumping policy of the Ministry of Commerce, it will be improved.

The supply and demand of n-propanol will remain high in the future

At present, the atmosphere of supply and demand in the domestic n-propanol market has improved, and the shipment volume has increased compared with the previous period. According to the analysts of the propyl alcohol industry of the business association, the market of n-propanol is mainly at a high level in the short term. Under the favorable atmosphere of inquiry, the business operators have more confidence in the offer, which does not rule out the possibility that the quotations of the secondary market will rise slightly again.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 31, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6066.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on July 1, the price decreased by 967 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.74%; compared with the price on June 1, the price dropped by 167 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.67%; the maximum amplitude from June 1 to July 31 was 40.11%.

After the high price of butanone, the market fell rapidly in June

In mid June, the market of butanone experienced a short-term surge, up as high as 40.11%. However, the market demand could not be effectively followed up. After the surge, the price of butanone market fell rapidly and the market did not receive an effective boost at the end of June.

Butanone continued to decline in July, the market downturn all the way to the bottom

In July, the overall demand of butanone downstream is not high, the atmosphere of inquiry is not good, and a large number of ships arrive at port, resulting in a big contradiction between supply and demand in the market. In half a month, the price of butanone has dropped to 6400 yuan / ton, down 8.53% in half a month. The price has basically fallen to the safety price in the minds of the industry. Then, after a short period of stability, the market of butanone fell slightly again. Until July 31, the average price of butanone was 6066.67 yuan / ton. Compared with July 1, the average price of butanone was reduced by 967 yuan / ton, or 13.74%, and the middle and low-end price had dropped to around 5800 yuan / ton. The main reasons for the continuous decline of butanone market in July are as follows:

Hot weather and off-season approach, the downstream demand is cold

The high temperature in summer is the traditional off-season for butanone. Due to high temperature and environmental protection, the operation time of downstream terminal coatings, paints, adhesives and other industries has been reduced. Therefore, it is greatly affected by the season, and the downstream demand is weak without improvement.

Export restriction and foreign trade pressure affect domestic trade atmosphere

Affected by the increasing public events abroad, the butanone export orders were significantly reduced in July. It is heard that some exporters have not received new export orders for nearly a week. Then the cold foreign trade market will directly pressure the supply pressure on the domestic market. With the increase of domestic inventory, the bearish mentality of the operators is increasing, and the domestic market continues to be cold, and the mentality of traders in some regions disintegrates and the sales are low.

Raw material market not improved, cost support is general

At the end of July, the demand for C4 after raw material ether was improved, and the transaction price rose slightly, but the market did not improve substantially. The market for end products did not improve much, and the prices were mostly adjusted with the shock of the news. Therefore, the cost of butanone was generally supported. The sales pressure of butanone secondary market is still large.

The price of butanone in some regions of China in July (for reference only)

Regional product specifications up and down 7 / 1 7 / 31

Butanone purified water in South China: 7200 yuan / ton, 6400 yuan / ton – 11.42%

Butanone purified water storage in North China 6900 yuan / ton 5750 yuan / ton – 16.66%

In East China, butanone purified water was delivered at 7100 yuan / ton, 6150 yuan / ton – 13.38%

Low season demand is difficult to boost; butanone price is mainly stable in August, with limited rebound space

In view of the current situation, the supply and marketing pressure of butanone market in August still exists, and the improvement of downstream demand is limited in a short time. It is expected that the butanone market in August will be dominated by low price stability. It is not ruled out that the price will rebound slightly after the secondary market inventory is gradually digested. However, the demand side can not be really eased, and the real rise may come later.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose slightly in July. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9020 yuan / ton, up 0.22% compared with the price of 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.36%.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid prices rose slightly in July. Up to now, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is 8500-9000 yuan / ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid demand is general, and hydrofluoric acid market price is mainly volatile. The domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, the hydrofluoric acid on-site device operates stably, and the hydrofluoric acid market price has slightly increased. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 8500-9000 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 8000-9000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is mainly stable, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid exists in the crack, some manufacturers reflect that domestic hydrofluoric acid is in the market, hydrofluoric acid trading market is general.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite fell slightly in July. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2800 yuan / ton, and the price dropped slightly by 0.4% in July. The domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, and some of the retailers could not offer low prices. The market reflected that the supply of fluorite spot goods was normal, and the price range of fluorite slightly fell. By the end of the month, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation was 2700-2850 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market was a major support for hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price dropped slightly.

In July, the market trend of domestic refrigerants was general, the demand of domestic refrigerant industry did not improve significantly, the start-up of refrigerant industry remained low, and the price increase of hydrofluoric acid market was very limited. In addition, the economic recovery of Europe and the United States is not very ideal, the situation of refrigerant export is poor, and the domestic refrigerant trading market is cold. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is still fluctuating. However, the market situation of price without market is obvious. The mainstream price of R22 in domestic large enterprises is 16000-18000 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a market price is low, and the plant operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream start-up is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In recent years, the downstream industry procurement situation is general, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the change range in July is small.

Overall, the upstream and downstream market trend of hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable. In addition, the upstream raw material fluorite continues to increase pressure, and the downstream refrigerant industry trading market has not improved significantly. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may fall slightly.

The domestic butadiene market rose widely in July, especially in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 3445 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 4473 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 29.83% during the month, and a decrease of 49.68% compared with the same period last year.

In July, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward, and the growth rate accelerated in the last ten days of the month. In the first half of the month, Tianjin Zhongsha and North Huajin plants were restarted, and it was difficult to see a significant improvement in the market supply side, and the wavelet rise in the first ten days was not continued. However, due to the strong performance of the external market and the limited quantity of domestic suppliers, the release of market supply was less than expected; meanwhile, affected by the weather, some ships in East China delayed unloading, and the spot supply was temporarily tight, which boosted the supplier’s price and accelerated the price rise. The short-term bullish expectation stimulated the positive inquiry of downstream, and some of them had chasing up sentiment, which further promoted the market to climb up. However, with the rapid rise of the market, the cautious atmosphere of the market is gradually rising. At the end of the month, the arrival of ships to Hong Kong and the increase of northeast supply, the high price transaction was hindered, and the market dropped slightly.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply rose by 1100 yuan / ton to 4700 yuan / ton on a month-on-month basis; Huajin butadiene plant in northern China was shut down for a short time within a month, and the online export source was significantly reduced, with the node price of 4560 yuan / ton as of July 30; the 200000 ton / year butadiene unit of Sinopec was shut down for maintenance on May 9, and the operation was restarted around July 10, with a small amount of goods exported; and Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 yuan / T The butadiene unit of Dalian Hengli Co., Ltd. was shut down around July 13 with no clear restart plan, and the inventory was normally exported; Dalian Hengli 140000 T / a butadiene plant was in stable operation, with the listing price of 4510 yuan / T as of July 31, an increase of 1200 yuan / T compared with the same period of last month; the 120000 T / a butadiene extraction unit in Liaoning Baolai may be put into operation in early August, so it is suggested to pay attention to the output.

In terms of industrial chain, downstream SBR: in July, the domestic SBR Market showed a downward trend and then an upward trend. As the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber rose to the recent high at the end of June, but after entering July, due to no real positive boost, the rise was difficult to sustain. Moreover, with the low price of raw materials and the high start-up of each styrene butadiene production enterprise, the supply of styrene butadiene rubber is still abundant; downstream factories enter the traditional off-season, and under the bearish market, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, only to maintain the just demand; the market has successively appeared profit-making lower, causing obvious drag on the market, and gradually lower the trading center. After entering the late July, the ex factory and market prices of styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) basically fell back to the previous low level. At this time, the butadiene price rebounded upward and the market attention increased. In addition, the high level of natural rubber boosted the mentality of the industry gradually turned to be better, and the low output in the market was reduced. The manufacturers increased the price significantly and watched the new moon’s price guidance. The downstream maintained a wait-and-see attitude and resisted the high-priced goods, so the actual order continued discuss.

Br: in July, the overall performance of the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market rebounded after falling. During the month, Yanshan and Qilu Shunding rubber units were shut down for maintenance, the supply was narrowed, and the good was released ahead of time, and the supplier pushed up the price of June; after entering July, the maintenance news came to the ground, but little impact on the market; the butadiene price remained low, and the cost side was empty; the start-up situation of tires and other equipment did not change much, and the price of cis-1-butadiene was in a deep decline, the downstream procurement progress was not big, so the price was pushed down Most of them are in the market; after the bad luck intensified, the low price of Shunding market is frequent, especially the inverted hanging range of some private Shunding prices is larger than the unit price of two oil companies, and the market falls into a strong bearish mood. The butadiene price rebounded slightly in the last ten days. Considering the factors such as the price difference between Shanghai Rubber and Shanghai rubber, the market began to show a slightly stable trend, and stopped falling in the later period, and there were signs of a narrow rebound until the end of the month.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in July 2020, there were 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose on a month on month basis, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate. The top three commodities that increased were sulfuric acid (42.50%), butadiene (29.83%) and propane (14.43%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.9% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were acetone (- 38.02%), phenol (- 19.93%) and isopropanol (- 18.75%). This month, the average rise and fall was – 0.47%.

In the future, the domestic butadiene market rose rapidly in late July, but the downstream follow-up was slightly insufficient. High price transaction was hindered and the domestic spot supply increased, the market fell and sorted. In August, on the one hand, the high external market and abundant raw materials from domestic manufacturers may affect the reduction of import sources in the second half of the month. However, at the same time, there are plans for the production of 120000 T / a new units in Baolai, Liaoning Province, which may continue to supplement domestic demand. The recovery of downstream terminal demand and the upstream butadiene supply increase may exist at the same time. Under the supply and demand deadlock, butadiene analysts of the business community expect that the butadiene market will fluctuate between small areas and wait for the transaction to follow up. The short-term upward pushing resistance is obvious, and the medium and long-term lines need to pay attention to the release of new production capacity.