1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic refrigerant R22 rose sharply in December. On December 1, the average price of mainstream manufacturers was 16166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month (27 days) was 17333.33 yuan / ton. The market rose sharply this month. On December 27, the R22 commodity index was 104.00, flat with yesterday’s record high in the cycle, up 24.70% from 83.40, the lowest point on October 14, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R22 price in refrigerant market is up this month. The main reason is that the quota of enterprises at the end of the year is limited, the supply is tight, and the market is out of stock. Most manufacturers do not accept new orders basically. Before the main supply, orders are placed, and the price is high and stable. The transaction price of bulk water market of traders is chaotic, and the supply of goods in their hands is tight. The terminal’s demand for refrigerant R22 has not been improved, and the hydrofluoric acid market at the raw material end has remained stable, with general on-site trading and weak support for refrigerant R22. At present, the trend of refrigerant R22 is strong, but there is no market in the market. As of December 27, the average price of refrigerant R22 is around 17333 yuan / ton, and the quotation is mainly about 15500 yuan / ton – 18500 yuan / ton, with refrigerant R22 at a high level.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products rose this month. In the near future, the situation of goods delivery by the manufacturers in the field is general, and the spot supply in the field is normal. The price of domestic trichloromethane of upstream products rebounded to the bottom, the inventory pressure of enterprises was not high, the shipment of enterprises was smooth, the market supply was abundant, the actual order was slightly low, and the price of trichloromethane was expected to decline. The terminal air conditioner manufacturer starts at a low level, with general demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are four kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on December 26, 2019, among which crude benzene (2.15%), ethyl acetate (0.85%) and butadiene (0.54%) are the top three commodities. There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are n-propanol (- 1.85%), propylene (- 1.84%) and 1,4-butanediol (- 1.47%). The average price of this day was – 0.08%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, the price of refrigerant R22 is high and stable, with a small amount of inventory in the hands of dealers and no market in the market. It is expected that the trend of refrigerant R22 will fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 31, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7000 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.

After the carbon black market fell sharply in 2018, it is difficult for the price to rise again. In the first three quarters of 2019, the price fluctuated little and the market did not rise or fall. In 2019, carbon black products in the domestic market fell into a loss, with an average profit of – 200 yuan / ton, the first decline in the past five years. Last year, the average profit was as high as 600-800 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis:

1. Overcapacity. Before 2018, driven by the increased profits of carbon black products, domestic carbon black enterprises expanded capacity in a carpet way but ignored the breakthrough of quality. Under the blind and repeated expansion, overcapacity and low concentration of domestic carbon black enterprises became the main structural contradiction of the industry. There is still a certain gap between domestic carbon black quality and international level. In the second half of 2018, the disordered market competition, high cost and low profit, shortage of enterprise operating capital, weak demand and other contradictions intensified. In 2019, the capacity utilization rate of domestic carbon black industry was only maintained at 5-60%. According to Zhuo Chuang’s statistics, in 2020, the carbon black industry still has a capacity expansion plan of about 580000 tons / ton, and there is no capacity to be eliminated temporarily. Although some carbon black enterprises are temporarily shut down due to various factors, the possibility of restarting at any time in the later period is not ruled out. In 2020, the carbon black industry will face the most severe challenges, such as the endless pace of capacity expansion and weak terminal demand.

2. Low demand. According to statistics, in 2019, the operating rate of China’s tire enterprises is significantly lower than that in 2018. Among them, the average operating rate of all steel tire is 3.66% lower than last year, the average operating rate of half steel tire is 4.51% lower than last year, and the theoretical value of the downstream tire industry’s demand for carbon black is about 116000 tons lower. In terms of rubber products, affected by the decline of automobile sales this year, the orders of rubber products enterprises decreased, some manufacturers stopped production more in this year, and the overall terminal demand was depressed. At present, tires account for about 70% of the total supply market of carbon black. When negotiating with carbon black enterprises for new single price, most of them are bidding or pricing according to formula. There are more carbon black suppliers to choose from, and the bargaining power of carbon black enterprises is weak under the contradiction of supply and demand that supply exceeds demand. Under the background of Sino US trade war, EU’s “double anti” policy and large tire enterprises’ overseas factory building, there is still some room for growth of domestic semi steel tire production in 2020, but the possibility of growth of all steel tire production is relatively small. In 2019, the situation of easy to fall and hard to rise formed by carbon black pricing will ease the demand cycle, and in 2020, carbon black will still play a passive role in the bargaining with downstream enterprises.

3. Low price competition is serious. In 2019, due to the low downstream demand, carbon black enterprises in order to seize the market and increase sales volume, low price competition is serious. From the perspective of carbon black market this year, the overall price is much lower than that in 2018. By the end of December, the price of N330 carbon black was about 5000 yuan / ton, down about 1000 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. The sharp drop in market prices has led to a loss for the carbon black industry.

Fourth, challenges brought by environmental pressure. In 2019, the pattern of large-scale environmental protection has formed and entered the era of intensive cultivation, and in 2020, environmental supervision will be more normalized. In 2020, under the pressure of national supply side structural reform and environmental protection supervision, the construction of main coke enterprises, carbon black enterprises and tire enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other regions will be restricted to varying degrees. Under the deepening of environmental protection supervision, the supply of coal tar and other raw oil is tightened, and the bargaining bottom gas of raw oil purchased by carbon black enterprises is insufficient; the improvement of desulfurization and out of stock devices, environmental protection supervision and production restriction policies will continue to increase the environmental protection cost investment of carbon black enterprises; rubber products enterprises such as tires have limited starting load under the influence of policies such as large gas pollution control, and the bargaining power of carbon black and tire enterprises continues Continue to be weakened.

3、 Future forecast

Carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: carbon black market downturn will continue at the end of the year.

4、 Development strategy

1. Improve environmental protection facilities, save energy and reduce emissions, and develop green circular economy

Carbon black industry belongs to the industry with high pollution and energy consumption. The energy saving and consumption reduction of carbon black production is measured by the total oil consumption, which is the sum of fuel oil consumption and raw material oil consumption. The reduction of energy consumption in carbon black production needs to be improved from the following aspects: first, carbon black enterprises need to adopt efficient collection equipment to improve carbon black yield; second, carbon black enterprises need to continuously improve carbon black production process and equipment to make full use of the waste heat in the carbon black production process to reduce energy consumption in carbon black production; third, the improvement of production devices such as desulfurization and delisting, and the full benefit of tail gas resources It is also of great significance to energy conservation and emission reduction of carbon black industry; fourth, the improvement of carbon black extraction and reuse technology in waste tires has a certain role in promoting the reuse of carbon black.

2. Industrial structure optimization and upgrading

At present, the industrial structure of carbon black industry in China is characterized by many manufacturers, small production scale, and production capacity greater than demand. In the future, improving the industrial capacity concentration and forming a large-scale carbon black group will greatly enhance the competitiveness of China’s carbon black enterprises in the international market. Driven by the supply side structural reform, the carbon black industry will develop in a large-scale and intensive direction. Carbon black enterprises need to strengthen enterprise management, formulate effective development strategies to realize the effective allocation and optimization of resources, establish effective marketing and information systems, and form the integrated development of upstream and downstream integrated industrial chain when funds and conditions permit.

3. Pay attention to brand building, increase R & D and investment in high-performance and special carbon black products, and differentiate competition

China is the largest producer of carbon black, but there is still a certain gap between the quality of carbon black and the international leading level. In the environment of overcapacity and vicious competition of low-quality carbon black, “win by quantity” is obviously not in line with the development law of carbon black market. There are two aspects to improve the independent innovation ability of carbon black Enterprises: first, carbon black enterprises need to change their business philosophy, increase the R & D and investment of low lag carbon black, conductive carbon black, pigment and other special carbon black needed by green tires, and improve the added value of carbon black products to adapt to the changing market demand; second, the continuous R & D of intelligent integration of carbon black production to continuously realize the domestic market demand The high-tech and market globalization of carbon black production technology focuses on strengthening brand building and improving international popularity.

1、 Price trend

This week (12.23-12.27), the power coal market rose slightly, according to the monitoring of the business news agency. The price of power coal at the beginning of the week is about 556 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the week is around 559 yuan / ton. The price at the end of the week is 0.54% higher than that at the beginning of the week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Supply side is relatively reduced, market price is slightly higher

According to the business association, on the one hand, after entering the winter, the environmental protection will be strengthened. In addition, the early coal mine accidents will cause the coal security inspection to be strengthened again, which will lead to the increase of coal production stop and production restriction, and the transportation volume will be significantly reduced. On the other hand, the port power coal storage will also be significantly reduced, the market spot is relatively short, and the market quotation will be increased.

Large increase of daily consumption of power plant supports the formation of power coal

With the arrival of the late winter season, the daily consumption of the power plant is gradually increasing in December, and the inventory is correspondingly reduced, which forms a certain support for the power coal. According to the information of the business agency, as of December 26, the six coastal power plants had an inventory of 16.04 million tons, a daily consumption of 774300 tons and a usable period of 20.72 days.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: on the one hand, affected by the environmental protection policy of the production area, the supply of power coal has been reduced at present, on the other hand, the daily consumption of downstream power plants has increased. In a comprehensive view, it is expected that the power coal market will continue to explore slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: MTBE market price is stable this week (December 23-27)

According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE this weekend was 5350 yuan / ton, 0.31% higher than that of last week.

2、 Market analysis

Product: on December 30, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil is expected to increase by 230 yuan / ton. The price of domestic gasoline market is slightly higher. The MTBE market turns bullish. This week, the domestic MTBE price is stable and slightly higher.

Industry chain: the international crude oil rose slightly this week, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment on December 30 is expected to increase by 230 yuan / ton. The bullish sentiment in the gasoline and diesel market this week is growing, but the weak market demand drags the market price up. The gasoline market rose only 0.11% this week.

MTBE Market: last week, MTBE manufacturers had difficulty in shipping, and price reduction and promotion were carried out under the increase of inventory pressure. After entering this week, the price of international crude oil market rose, the price of gasoline rose slightly, and the MTBE price was at a low level, attracting downstream traders to enter the market to copy the bottom one after another, the shipment of manufacturers improved significantly, and the low price of MTBE rebounded slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of Business News Agency: New Year’s day and Spring Festival holiday come one after another, gasoline market demand may improve, and MTBE price is relatively low at present. The market price of MTBE is expected to rise steadily next week.

PTA suddenly rose in a straight line in the afternoon on Christmas Eve, jumping from 4900 yuan / ton to 4950 yuan / ton. Although it is not unusual for PTA to see a rise of less than 2%, the market generally tends to be short when new capacity is put into centralized production, which is unexpected. According to the current news, the rising price of raw material PX in the day is the main reason, but it is expected to be short-term performance, and the long-term line is mainly short-term.

1. PTA accident caused by rising raw materials

According to Zhuo Chuang information, on the afternoon of the 24th, the delivery price of any February shipment of p-xylene in Asia was 832 US dollars / ton CFR China, and that of any March shipment was 822 US dollars / ton CFR China, and that of any March shipment was 822 US dollars / ton CFR China. On the eve of the Christmas holiday, the enthusiasm for buying on the market has been greatly improved, and the trading atmosphere is active. Overall, PX prices closed at $831 / T CFR China today, up $13 / T. Due to the smooth operation of the PX units of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengyi Brunei, and the successful supply of raw materials to the downstream PTA units, the price of PX has been under pressure, but due to the influence of the festival, the trading atmosphere has increased, and the rise of PX price is expected to be a short-term behavior. In terms of PTA increase, PTA cost corresponding to $13 PX increased by 70 yuan / ton, consistent with the closing price increase of the market. At present, the processing cost of PTA is less than 450 yuan / ton, so the price sensitivity to the fluctuation of raw materials has increased. It can be seen that the unexpected rise in the afternoon is directly related to the rise in the price of raw materials.

2. PTA meets the peak of production again

In 2012-2014, PTA experienced centralized production capacity, continuous price decline, and long-term low industry processing costs. In 2015-2018, the growth rate of PTA capacity in China slowed down, and the problem of overcapacity was gradually solved with the elimination of old devices and the increase of consumption. In 2017-2019, PTA ushered in the stage of tight balance between supply and demand, and the industry profit was significantly rebounded. From the end of 2019, 2.2 million tons of new Fengming phase I (invested), 2.5 million tons of Hengli phase IV (December 2019), 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai Kunyu (1.2 million tons) and 2.5 million tons of Hengli phase V (the second quarter of 2020), a large number of giant devices have been put into production, and the rapid increase of supply will bring obvious pressure. In the later period, 2.2 million tons of new Fengming phase II, 2.2 million tons of Fujian Baihong, 2.4 million tons of Honggang petrochemical, 3 million tons of Yisheng new materials, etc Large scale units will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2020, so PTA supply pressure will continue to rise in the long term, and the price is mainly weak.

In combination with the above two points, PTA’s sudden and rapid growth in the day is mainly driven by the rise of raw materials, but it is expected that PX’s rise will be short-term and difficult to sustain; PTA will once again usher in the peak of production capacity, with high supply pressure and weak prices.