I. price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of November 19, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9680 yuan / ton, with a 1.68% increase on a month on month basis and a 8.68% decrease on a year-on-year basis.

II. Market analysis

Product: the golden nine silver ten is fleeting. In the first half of November, the market news was relatively calm, and the factory’s intention to support the market was high. In addition to the demand for PBT in the downstream, other overall demand was weak, and the focus of on-site negotiation was rigid and consolidated. However, after the BDO industry meeting, Xinjiang Meike first raised its listing price on Friday (11.15), and there was another wave of listing tide in the market. The main factories are releasing listing information one after another to unify market pricing. The listed factories include Xinjiang Meike, Shaanxi Shanhua, Inner Mongolia Dongyuan and Xinjiang Tunhe. There is no clear news before the deadline of other factories. As of November 18, the price of the mainstream bulk water supply in the East China market of BDO in China is 8900-9500 yuan / ton, which is hard to find at a low price.

In terms of market, the BDO market in North China is waiting to be sorted out, the listing information of the factory is released one after another, the downstream market is more cautious, and the focus of on-site transaction is temporarily stable. The BDO market in East China is in a stalemate and consolidation. Following the listing of Meike, other factories have released the listing news one after another. At present, the factory inventory is not under pressure, and the attitude of supporting the market continues. The downstream enters the market on demand, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The BDO market in South China has been operating steadily, the on-site starting load has been steadily increased, the price keeping intention of suppliers has been rising, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has been declining. Just in need of placing an order to make up the position, the on-site transaction center is higher.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol prices of enterprises in the northwest and upper reaches of the mainland were firm at the beginning of the week, some of which were stopped in succession, and Shandong and North China also maintained a steady upward trend; however, futures prices fell overnight and then hit a new low, the port supply was difficult to digest, and there was still room for subsequent arrivals to increase, with obvious differences in market mentality in the early days. At present, the arbitrage window between the mainland and the port continues to close, and both traders and downstream stocks are not high. It is expected that the short-term market between the mainland and the port will continue the trend of differentiation, and the mainland will also present the trend of regional differentiation due to different demand, but the overall trend will remain weak.

Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market has been reduced regionally. At present, the shipment pressure in Inner Mongolia is increasing, but the current price is low, and the market wait-and-see is aggravated by the impact of cost. Some enterprises in Ningxia are down regulated, and the purchase price of sufficient goods in Shanxi is down regulated. It is expected that there will be a regional down regulation in domestic calcium carbide Market in the near future.

III. future forecast

On the whole, the cost side support is weak. Although the supply side support is weaker than that in the earlier stage, most of the main factories are listed at the same price at present. In addition, the inventory is not under pressure. The intention of the supplier to hold up the price this time is rising. The load of the downstream PBT factory is steadily increasing, and the demand side is supported to a certain extent, but the resistance to the manufacturer’s listing is high. BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market will be strong, focusing on factory settlement and downstream demand changes.

According to the price trend chart of fluorite, the price trend of fluorite has been kept at a low level. According to statistics, the average price of domestic fluorite as of November 18 is 2861.66 yuan / ton, and the price trend of domestic fluorite is mainly stable. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-3000 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-3000 yuan / ton The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-2900 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of fluorite in China has remained low and fluctuated. First, the national environmental protection inspection shows that the fluorite operation rate is average. Some domestic mines and flotation units have been shut down, which has reduced the spot supply of fluorite in the site. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped production, some goods holding businesses still have a strong price intention, and the domestic fluorite price has not continued to decline. Second, as the temperature drops, the northern fluorite manufacturers are gradually restricted, and the domestic supply of fluorite has declined. The price of fluorite in the site has been supported to a certain extent, and the price of fluorite has remained stable. Third, the price of hydrofluoric acid and the market of refrigerants in the downstream have not changed much in the near future, which has a certain negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the domestic fluorite price has not improved. In the near future, hydrofluoric acid Market and refrigerant industry have no obvious positive support, and fluorite price is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the later period.

The upstream and downstream market is general, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

As of the 18th, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9600 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market is weak. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia is 8500-9500 yuan / ton. The supply of hydrofluoric acid market is normal The market price is low.

In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is about 60%. The enterprises report that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site is normal at present. In the near future, the distribution of goods in the site is general. In the near future, due to the small change of downstream demand and the support of upstream fluorite price, the domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers report serious losses, but the favorable support is insufficient. The price of hydrofluoric acid is stable, but some manufacturers report that With the decrease of fluorite supply, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is on the rise. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market is general, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 remains low. From the perspective of market supply, the market price of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers maintain the air-conditioning, and the demand changes little. The main price of domestic large enterprises is 13000-14000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is at a low level, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level, the market demand for refrigerants is reduced, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal keeps low, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable. However, there is an upward trend in the transaction price on the spot. The merchants purchase on demand. In the near future, due to the normal supply of goods, some manufacturers reflect a decrease, and the supply of fluorite in the north is gradually declining. It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will rebound and rise in the later period.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market continues to decline. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2146 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2058 yuan / ton. Within the week, the price dropped by 4.10%, 12.50% month on month and 37.80% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the mainland and ports have dropped to varying degrees. The futures remained weak, the port inventory decreased slightly in the week, but it was still on the high side as a whole, the delivery speed was average, and the short-term high stock pressure continued. On the mainland side, part of the port’s goods flowed into Shandong and other places in the week, which to some extent suppressed the trend of the mainland market, and the downstream market was not good, and the goods received were limited. In addition, the mainland was abundant in supply, and more profits were sold in various regions. In addition, the price of natural gas in Southwest China has increased by 10%, and the decline range is limited under the support of cost. However, at present, the gas head enterprises are in a state of loss. In the later stage, some units may reduce the load / stop, but the overall stop time in 2019 may be lower than that in previous years.

In terms of freight: the domestic methanol freight increases by 10-30 yuan / ton in many places, 200-240 yuan / ton from the North Inner Mongolia line to the north of Shandong; 200-230 yuan / ton from the south line to the north of Shandong; 150-190 yuan / ton from Guanzhong to the north of Shandong, 140-170 yuan / ton from Guanzhong to the southwest of Shandong; 130-180 yuan / ton from Shanxi to the north of Shandong. The reference from Xinjiang to Lubei is 600 yuan / ton; the reference from Qinghai to Lubei is 450 yuan / ton; the reference from Ningxia to Lubei is 240-250 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: Recently, due to the parking of plate factories in Shandong formaldehyde market, the stock is high, the goods are not smooth, and the trend is weak. Among them, the price of Linyi and its surrounding areas is around 1000-1500 yuan / ton, the high-end price is in Zibo area, and the low-end price is below 1000 yuan / ton.

Acetic acid: the domestic glacial acetic acid market is stable and firm. The price in Northwest China rose due to the decrease of enterprise inventory and the low price in the early stage. The Eastern market price is stable, the inventory of enterprises in North China is low, and the inventory of enterprises in East China is medium. At present, domestic demand and export negotiation are not good. Domestic downstream mainly digests long-term and early-stage low-priced goods. The price of export delivery is low, which makes negotiation difficult. The operators have different mentality and are cautious in operation.

DME: in the short term, the market of DME is stable and weak, and the downstream market is loose. The seller has a certain attitude of supporting the market, but the current market supply is high, which is expected to stabilize in a short term or in succession.

III. future forecast

Business club’s point of view: on the positive side, cost: it is reported that the recent natural gas price performance is strong, and the methanol cost support in southwest and other places is acceptable; local vehicles are reduced, the freight price is increased, and the arrival cost is increased. On the negative side, the external market: the price of the external market is low, and the imported goods impact the domestic market price; demand: at present, the downstream receiving atmosphere is limited, and the demand in some regions is poor; supply: the port inventory remains high, and the local inventory in the mainland has increased compared with last week, so the supply side is relatively abundant. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market may be mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the near future, so it is necessary to pay attention to the change of vehicles on the site.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China is 676.67 yuan / ton, up 7.98% month on month. On November 13, the sulfur commodity index was 37.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.24% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 16.69% from 31.82, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: weak domestic sulfur market consolidation, weak downstream demand, weak enthusiasm of terminal market entry procurement, no news on the outside market, port inventory continued to increase instead of decreasing, and the industry was bearish on the future market. At present, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China market is about 570-710 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is about 520-680 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong market is about 730 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is about 520-600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China market is 590 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 520-600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the downstream sulfuric acid market is quiet, the price of acid enterprises is mainly stable, and the market price trend in Shandong is stable. The contradiction between supply and demand in the site remains the same, with strong supply and weak demand, weak and stable trading in acid market, poor mentality of the industry, and parking maintenance of individual acid enterprises, limited support for good news in the market, and expected price stability.

Industry: from the perspective of demand, the supply and demand performance is weak, and the negotiation is stagnant. Port inventory increases, consumption is slow, market trading is still cold, on-demand procurement based, both sides wait for information guidance. Weak domestic sulfur market consolidation, downstream demand has not improved, and the bearish sentiment of the industry on the future market has increased.

III. future forecast

According to the sulfur analysts of the business society, at present, the sulfur market lacks news support, has no substantial positive factors, and there is no substantial change in demand. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to be weak.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market is declining. As of November 12, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2134 yuan / ton. Prices fell 10.79% month on month and 24.19% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic methanol market shows a downward trend, and the mainland and ports have declined to varying degrees. The port continued to be weak in the day, the futures market kept prices down, and spot buying maintained rigid demand. On the mainland market, the wait-and-see mentality was obvious at the beginning of the week. Some enterprises haven’t adjusted their prices yet, and the prices fall down due to poor trading in some regions. It is reported that the port price is low, and some goods flow back to Shandong, which to some extent suppresses the trend of the mainland market. In addition, the northwest guidance price has been lowered this week, so we need to pay attention to the transmission to the mainland market.

In terms of freight: the domestic methanol freight has been rising and falling, which has been sorted out recently. The freight from the northern Inner Mongolia line to Lubei is 180-240 yuan / ton; the freight from the southern line to Lubei is 170-210 yuan / ton; the freight from Guanzhong to Lubei is 130-170 yuan / ton, the freight from Guanzhong to southwest of Shandong is 180-200 yuan / ton; the freight from Shanxi to Lubei is 110-150 yuan / ton; the freight from Xinjiang to Lubei is 600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: Recently, due to limited production due to haze in Shandong formaldehyde market, the trading atmosphere is weak. Among them, near 1020-1500 yuan / ton in Linyi and its surrounding areas, the high-end price is in Zibo area, and the low-end price is below 1000 yuan / ton.

Acetic acid: the domestic glacial acetic acid market was stable at the beginning of the week. After last week’s low price shipment, downstream staged replenishment, the overall inventory of glacial acetic acid enterprises decreased, so the offer is temporarily stable. The downstream market is just in demand and the purchase intention is stable. More attention has been paid to the small devices and export negotiations in Nanjing.

Dimethyl ether: the market of dimethyl ether has gradually stabilized, the seller has a certain willingness to support the market, and the downstream purchases on demand. At present, the demand has not improved significantly, and the short-term stability is partially weak.

III. future forecast

Business club’s point of view: on the positive side, cost: it is reported that the price of natural gas continues to rise in the near future, and the methanol cost in southwest and other places can still be supported. In terms of bad news, port: at present, the port continues to fall under the drive of futures, the port market price is low, some of the spot flows back to Shandong and other places, which to some extent suppresses the mainland market; demand: at present, the traditional downstream demand remains weak, and part of it is affected by environmental protection factors, some of the downstream starts are low, and the demand further weakens; main production area: the northwest guidance price obviously falls, short-term Or transmit to the mainland market; port inventory: the subsequent import volume remains high, and the port delivery speed slows down, the short-term port inventory may still increase. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by differential finishing, with partial or continuous decline.