1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell first and then rose this week. As of February 18, the spot nickel price was 179333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.9% from 177733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 28.2% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business society, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price has risen by 7, fell by 5 and leveled by 1. The recent trend of nickel price is still dominated by strong shock.

Nickel industry chain

In terms of supply and demand: enterprises in Guangxi, Tianjin and Shandong continued to stop production since 2021, and enterprises in Gansu, Jilin and Xinjiang normally produced during the Spring Festival. In January, the overall output of domestic refined nickel is expected to decrease by 13.86% month on month to 12500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.93%. In February, the output of 300 series stainless steel crude steel was 1256600 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.0%. In February, the estimated output of China’s ternary precursor was 64500 tons, an increase of 1.1% month on month and 51% year-on-year.

To sum up: the current shortage of nickel metal, combined with the strong development of terminal new energy vehicles, drives the stable growth of the demand for nickel for batteries. The inventory of the exchange remains low, the inventory of LME nickel continues to decline, and continues to maintain the new low in the past two years. The pattern of tight nickel supply remains, and the fundamental support is strong. The potential adverse factors for the release of thousands of tons of nickel in March are the high price of ice and the potential squeeze of downstream profits. On the whole, before a large amount of high matte nickel is released, the shortage of pure nickel is difficult to alleviate, and the nickel price is expected to remain high.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (February 17): 5182 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of acetic acid fell again today, and the average market price in East China decreased by 3.07% compared with the previous working day. The domestic market continued to operate in a weak position. Acetic acid enterprises started stably, the market supply was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. They mainly digested the early orders. The atmosphere for the transaction of new orders in the market was light, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises accumulated, and the shipping quotation of goods holders was reduced after competition.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is weak, and the specific attention is paid to the market supply.

The price of ethylene oxide is temporarily stable. The ex factory price in East China, North China and Northeast China is 7700 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in central and South China is 7900 yuan / ton.

The price of upstream ethylene rose and fluctuated at a high level. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1210 / ton, that in Southeast Asia was US $1190 / ton, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene was 8600 yuan / ton today. However, the recovery of downstream demand was slightly slower than that in previous years, the rise of monomer was blocked and the consolidation was deadlocked. At present, the switch between EO and EG is opened again recently, and the EO supply is expected to be loose.

Forecast: due to the long short game, there are differences in market mentality, so we need to pay attention to the latest factory news guidance.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (February 15): 2203.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur in East China today is 1.54% higher than that of yesterday. The domestic sulfur market continues to rise. The price of solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong is increased by 50 yuan / ton simultaneously, that of Zhenhai Refining and chemical in East China is increased by 30 yuan / ton, and that of other refineries is unchanged. The price of liquid sulfur in North China is increased by 40-50 yuan / ton, and that of liquid sulfur in East China is increased by 100 yuan / ton. There is no inventory pressure for domestic refineries, the downstream sulfuric acid market is improving, the demand for liquid sulfur is increasing, the port supply flows into the market is less, the port cargo holders have strong intention to support the price, and the liquid sulfur price of regional refineries is rising; In terms of downstream phosphate fertilizer, the demand for sulfur is acceptable, the refinery shipment is smooth, and the price of sulfur fixation increases slightly.

Future forecast: wait and see the future sulfur market, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

441# silicon price trend

In the first week after returning to the market, metal silicon manufacturers have raised prices one after another, with strong willingness to support prices. On February 11, the average spot price of 441# metal silicon was reported at 20840 yuan / ton, up 0.24% from that of the year before. At the end of the week, due to the low downstream operating rate and general demand, the rising power was insufficient, and the price gradually stabilized.

Supply side

After the festival, silicon plants resumed production one after another. However, due to the dry season, the southwest still maintained the shutdown state. In some areas, the resumption time was also delayed due to the high electricity price, and the output decreased slightly in January. According to statistics, the output of metal silicon in January totaled 211700 tons, a decrease of 14.9% month on month. The main areas of production reduction are the areas affected by water in Yunnan and Sichuan. It is worth mentioning that the social inventory of metal silicon is OK, and there is basically no demand at the end of 2021. Because of the high profit in the early stage and the strong willingness of silicon factory merchants to raise prices in the new year.

Demand side

In terms of organosilicon DMC, the price has risen steadily and slightly. The factory quotation of domestic organosilicon DMC is around 31000-31500 yuan / ton, and the average price is 31420 yuan / ton. The market situation has gradually recovered, and the demand for metal silicon is only maintained at the level of rigid demand. In terms of aluminum alloy, the mainstream quotation in the market is 22000 yuan / ton. The price of aluminum alloy rises with the price of aluminum, and the expectation for the future market is good, but the market trading atmosphere is poor.

Future forecast

At present, the metal silicon market is still uncertain. After the festival, the downstream demand has not been fully released. Manufacturers mainly consume inventory, the operating rate of the supply side is low, and the southwest region is still in the shutdown state. Some silicon plants say that they will not start the furnace until the wet season. The supply side is expected to be gradually reduced. In addition, the rise of raw material cost and electricity price supports the increase of business quotation, It is expected that in the short term, the supply will shrink and the price will rise. In the long term, it is also necessary to pay attention to the demand side’s inventory consumption.