1、 Price trend:
According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market stopped falling in the second half of January, and the overall price level was still lower than that at the beginning of the month. As of January 27 of the new year, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises to CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 127.6.67 yuan / ton, a 1.68% decrease compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.
2、 The influencing factors were analyzed
Upstream, the current domestic caprolactam market is warmer than the first half of the month. At the beginning of this month, the domestic caprolactam price continued the high callback at the end of last year. After the festival, the spot price continued to decrease due to the recovery of supply. There was a change in supply in the second half of the month. The load of Haili chemical plant is low, and the operation rate of Baling Hengyi fluctuates. The price of raw material pure benzene has recently declined. Although the news of crude oil and external market is good, the inventory of downstream raw materials is high, and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods before the festival is not high. At present, the domestic caprolactam market is mainly oriented by the supply side, and the supply is tight in the second half of January, driving the price to pick up. When the supply and demand in the market gradually tend to balance, the adjustment range of material price may narrow.
Raw material caprolactam market stopped falling and turned warm, to a certain extent restored the cost support of PA6. In the middle of the month, the demand for conventional spinning began to increase, and the downstream factories gradually started the operation of stock preparation before the festival, which stimulated the demand for PA6 chips, and the overall inventory decreased. However, with the increase of price pressure on the cost side, the high offer in the chip market has been resisted by buyers. Spinning factory operating rate has been reduced, engineering plastics and modified plastics downstream have entered the Spring Festival holiday schedule. At the end of the month, the procurement of goods in stock and storehouse was basically completed, and the trading began to turn light.
3、 Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: in late January, domestic PA6 market warmed up. The fluctuation of upstream caprolactam operation rate decreased, the tightening of supply supported the price, and PA6 cost side support and cost side pressure were the same. The downstream demand for goods preparation before the festival drove PA6 out of the falling market, and entered the pre Festival mode at the end of the month, and the market atmosphere gradually cooled down. It is expected that PA6 price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the near future.
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