1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is weak, and the average price of Shandong market is 482.5 yuan / ton, down 16.81% compared with the same period last year. On January 25, the commodity index of caustic soda was 69.42, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 66.44% compared with 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 6.62% compared with 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
2、 Market analysis
At present, the market of caustic soda is weak as a whole, the atmosphere of conversation is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda is 400-530 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda in Hebei is temporarily stable, and 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda is about 470-580 yuan / ton. The downstream purchasing demand is general. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range finishing operation of caustic soda will be the main. The price of caustic soda in Henan Province is weak. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 1300-1500 yuan / ton (100%). The downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak.
Demand: on the downstream side, the downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. The purchasing of downstream enterprises is general, and the market price has little power to rise.
According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 03 th week (1.18-1.22) of 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling and 2 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (2.74%) and PVC (1.97%); the main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 3.05%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.33%.
Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, the cost side changes little, and the downstream purchasing demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. Although a few caustic soda manufacturers tentatively pull up the offer, the impact on the market is limited. It is expected that caustic soda will be sorted out later or in a narrow range, depending on the downstream market demand.
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