1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on April 7 was 3426.67 yuan / ton, up 0.78% from the previous day, down 6.12% from the beginning of the month, and up 8.9% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

On April 7, liquid prices stopped falling and rose, or 0.78%. In April, the domestic liquefied natural gas market went down all the way. Due to the restriction of dangerous chemical vehicles on expressways, the shipment of dangerous chemical vehicles in many places was not good, and the price fell under pressure. The first working day after the festival fell by about 5%. On April 7, the price of liquefied natural gas stopped falling, and there was a strong atmosphere of price support in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other places, The range is around 50-100 yuan / ton, with little increase. However, some areas continue to decline. As a whole, the market is mixed with rise and fall, with more rise and less fall. The market is adjusted in a narrow range according to its own shipment situation. With the end of heating period in northern China, the demand for heating is gradually decreasing, and the market is gradually entering the off-season. In addition, the continuous transfer of profits in the inlet air has impacted the domestic market. The pressure of liquid factory delivery is large, the inventory is high, the market is hard to find, and the market is weak, and the operation may continue.

On April 7, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) stopped falling and rose, with mixed rises and falls in some areas. It is 3300-3600 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 3460-3380 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 3350-3600 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 3570-3680 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 3520-3700 yuan / ton in Henan and 3180-3450 yuan / ton in Hebei.

Date of quotation (yuan / ton)

Inner Mongolia LNG 3300-3600 April 7

Shaanxi Liquefied Natural Gas Co., Ltd. 3460-3380 April 7

Shanxi ﹣ liquefied natural gas ﹣ 3350-3600 ﹣ April 7

Ningxia LNG 3570-3680 April 7

Hebei LNG 3180-3450 April 7

Henan LNG 3520-3700 April 7

Downstream products are mixed:

On April 7, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong Province was raised, and the negotiation price of methanol market in southern Shandong Province increased by 20 yuan / ton to 2300-2330 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal from nearby plants. Linyi receives the local goods to negotiate the price to 2300 yuan / ton and deliver them to the spot exchange. The logistics goods offer 2240-2250 yuan / ton and deliver them to the spot exchange. The turnover of methanol market in central Shandong was stable at 2310-2320 yuan / ton, which was sent to cash. Shandong methanol Lubei market is stable at 2300-2320 yuan / ton to cash. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

For liquid ammonia, the current shortage of liquid ammonia supply may be alleviated in the near future. After the Qingming Festival, the news of plant start-up has been released. Large plants in Henan may resume production after the festival, and the plant in Chongqing will resume production in mid April. In addition, the delivery of goods in Northeast China has also increased. It is expected that the supply will increase slowly in the near future. Therefore, the price of liquid ammonia may reach the top at present.

On April 7, the urea market in Shandong Province was temporarily stable. In terms of demand, agricultural demand was mainly sporadic procurement; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, and most of them followed the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, with a slight increase, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient.

Dichloromethane. On April 6, the reference price of dichloromethane was 3783.33, up 1.07% compared with that on April 1 (3743.33). At present, the domestic dichloromethane market is seeking a new balance point. On the one hand, the downstream is in conflict with the high price in the early stage. On the other hand, the cost side and demand side have different degrees of support for dichloromethane. On the whole, the market price in the later stage will continue to drop Until a balance is formed.

3、 Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: at present, the liquefied natural gas market is entering the off-season, the downstream demand is general, the trading volume turns weak, and the price drops to the bottom. Due to cost considerations, the liquid price in some areas stops falling and rises, but the range is not large. It is expected that the liquefied natural gas market will fluctuate at a low level and the price will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 6, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica was 4716.67 yuan / ton. The market of silica was stable, the transaction atmosphere was general, the downstream just needed to purchase, the stock atmosphere was cold, the overall supply and demand of the market was balanced, and the early market trend was maintained.

The overall operation of domestic rubber grade silica market is stable, the quotation range is maintained between 4000-5000 yuan / ton, the price is mainly stable, the main contract orders are mainly, the downstream just need to purchase, the purchasing atmosphere is flat, the number of new orders is limited, most of them focus on negotiation, the business mentality is stable, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the business take the goods carefully, the shipment is slow, and the overall market is running smoothly.

Chemical industry index: on April 5, the chemical industry index was 1004 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 4.29% from 1049 points (2021-03-10), the highest point in the cycle, and up 67.89% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream hydrochloric acid mainly operates stably with limited price fluctuation range. The latest price of some enterprises is 150 yuan / T for Dezhou Maihua, 300 yuan / T for Jinan Yuanfei, 260 yuan / T for Shanxi Wenshui and 750 yuan / T for Dezhou Shihua. Hydrochloric acid index: on April 5, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 62.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 37.72% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-12) in the cycle, and up 246.38% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now). (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Business analyst, white carbon analyst, said: the official account of the white carbon market is deserted. The downstream market just needs to maintain the trend of the previous market and operate steadily.

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in the early market on April 2 was 5185 yuan / kg, and the average price of spot market price in the early market was 5480.33 yuan / kg, or 5.39% compared with that of the early (January 1), which was 5.39%, which was 6.58% lower than that of the early spot market on January 1.

Spot price of gold on April 2 was 368 yuan / g, up 0.66% compared with the average price of early market in early market of early market (3.1) in early April (3.1); compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan / g, down 6.29%.

The price data in the year showed that the decline of precious metal gold silver was similar. In the early stage, silver was affected by the news side of American retail investors, and it fluctuated upward, and then it retreated to the news side for speculative increase. Silver prices began to fill the decline in March, and gold began to fluctuate in a small horizontal.

 
Similar to Gamestop, silver forced the blank, which helped the price of silver rise sharply in the late January. However, based on the silver market size reaching around $200billion, combined with the regulatory policy of exchange position restriction, silver won’t be able to push the sky. Return to the trend of precious metal decline.

Will the recent US non-agricultural employment data of March have a significant impact on the basic aspects of precious metals?

The influence geometry of the data of American and non agricultural on gold

The number of non-agricultural employment in the United States rose the largest since August. Affected by rapid vaccination and the implementation of $1400 relief fund, 916000 new non-agricultural employment was added in March, and the employment market represented by the private sector rebounded significantly.

With the government gradually relaxing the restrictions on activities, 280000 new employees in the bar, hotel and hotel industries, which were most affected by the epidemic, were employed; the employment situation in March was improved in the construction industry affected by the snowstorm in February. In addition to the better performance of new jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 6 per cent in March.

The data may increase market expectations of the Fed’s early tightening. We believe that the second quarter stimulus will gradually come into effect and accelerate the recovery. The dollar will continue to strengthen in the future, which may put pressure on precious metals.

Can the speculative enthusiasm of gold bars in the United States continue in 2020

Unlike the trend of bulk metals, gold has fallen continuously since its peak in August 2020. At present, the price has been at a low level of nearly 10 months, close to the price level at the end of March 2020.

Before the fall, precious metals were in the upward phase, and gold bullion investment was more enthusiastic in the United States. In 2019, the retail investment volume of gold in the United States was about 20 tons, with relatively weak level, and then it increased by more than three times in 2020, reaching 66 tons. On the one hand, after 2016, the investment demand of gold bullion has moved down the ladder and fell to the bottom of history; on the other hand, the special market in 2020 has helped to boost speculation enthusiasm.

The special market is mainly reflected in the following 2 points:

1. Gold price rise trend in 2020

The rising trend of gold price in 2020 provides a huge impetus for the upsurge of investment enthusiasm. In particular, August set a record high. The strong performance of gold price attracted new investors to the market.

2. risk aversion caused by epidemic

The panic of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in 2020 left the sharp fluctuations in commodity prices. The sharp increase in gold sales in the U. Speculation, coupled with concerns about interest rate cuts and inflation, such as the Fed’s move to zero in the first quarter of 2020 also spurred investment demand in 2020.

So can the speculative enthusiasm of American gold bars continue in 2021?

According to relevant data, the sales of Golden Eagle Coins exceeded 220000 ounces (about 6 tons) in January 2021. This is the highest monthly total sales since December 2009 and the strongest January sales of the century so far.

From January alone, enthusiasm is still high, mainly due to the expected US dollar water release at the beginning of the year. But from the domestic consumption market, the recent private investment demand of gold bars is not very high. Although the recent gold price is in the stage of high falling, there are not many long-term investment customers who dare to operate at high level. After all, in the uncertain situation, the probability of high price closing is very high.

Where will the price of precious metals go in the post epidemic era

1. lack of investment demand

After the peak investment in 2020, the heat intensity of precious metals gradually decreases. With the continuous introduction of vaccines into the market, the expected recovery of the economy from the epidemic intensified, and the possibility of real interest rate rise.

The expectation of investment funds outflow from gold ETF is increasing, and the position of domestic gold ETF is affected by the strong exchange rate and other factors.

2. closure of alternative assets

Other alternative assets, including the recent surge in commodity markets and so-called competitive bitcoin, have dispersed investors’ demand for gold.

It is expected that the space of precious metals will narrow down, and the main focus in the later period is whether the turning point of the basic plane will come.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of o-benzene plunged from a high level in March, and the price of o-benzene dropped three times in a row. In March, the price of o-benzene dropped by 1100 yuan / ton. As of March 31, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 5400.00 yuan / ton, down 16.92% compared with 6500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (March 1).

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene fluctuated in March, the overall market of mixed xylene was strong, and the price of mixed xylene remained high. In March, the price of o-xylene dropped by 1100 yuan / ton. Correspondingly, the price of mixed xylene remained high, the theoretical profit of o-xylene was negative, and the decline space of o-xylene price was infinitely reduced. As of March 31, the price of mixed xylene was 5400-5500 yuan / ton, and that of o-xylene was 5400 yuan / ton. The cost pressure of o-xylene increased, while the downward pressure of o-xylene remained, and the upward momentum increased.

Port inventory hit a new high in recent years

In 2021, affected by the concentration of imported goods and inland ship goods, the port inventory of o-xylene in the terminal continued to grow, and the main port in East China’s o-xylene inventory exceeded 60000 tons, reaching the highest level in the past five years. According to customs statistics, the total domestic imports of o-xylene from January to February 2021 were 67300 tons, up 573% over the same period of last year. As of April 1, the external quotation of o-xylene in major Asian regions was 760-810 US dollars / ton, down sharply from 835-855 US dollars / ton in early March, with the largest drop of 95 US dollars / ton. The sharp drop of external quotation and overstock of port inventory have dragged down the continuous decline of domestic price of o-benzene.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene in business news agency, believes that in terms of cost, mixed xylene remained high in March, and the price of o-xylene continued to fall, forming a tearing market. In terms of the external market, the port’s o-benzene inventory reached a new high, the inventory backlog was serious, and the external quotation fell sharply, and the external o-benzene price fell sharply, which stimulated the domestic o-benzene price to fall. On the whole, the domestic price of o-benzene has little room to fall, but the port inventory is high, so the price of o-benzene is difficult to rise; in March, the operating rate of o-phthalic anhydride manufacturers declined, the downstream demand of o-benzene obviously declined, so the port inventory is difficult to fall, and the support for the rise of o-benzene is insufficient. In the future, the loss of o-benzene will expand, which may increase the production reduction of manufacturers, but the price of o-benzene will not rise again before the consumption of port inventory. Moreover, the main downstream product of o-benzene, o-phthalic anhydride, is impacted by naphthalene phthalic anhydride, which has a greater cost advantage, and the demand for o-benzene may be further reduced in the future. The price of o-benzene is expected to be stable in the future.

The market of liquid ammonia rose sharply in March. According to the monitoring of the business association, the monthly increase of liquid ammonia was 17.16%. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Shandong was 3700-3850 yuan / ton.

In the first half of March, the liquid ammonia market was mainly stable, and the domestic supply and demand were basically balanced. With the constraints of urea price, the liquid ammonia market remained tepid. In the second half of March, the liquid ammonia market was like a rocket, and the price continued to rise. The main reason was the shortage of supply caused by frequent maintenance of large factories in the market. Many manufacturers in different regions in China carried out maintenance one after another, which gradually spread from the shortage of regional supply to the shortage of national supply, In Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Shaanxi, there are large factories overhauling, especially in Northeast China, two of which are overhauling. In addition, some factories in Shandong stop selling liquid ammonia for their own use, and the market shortage leads to continuous price rise, especially in the latter half of the year. Basically, the price rises every day, with a range of 50-100. In addition, due to the impact of urea price rise, the price of urea has increased since March In the case of India’s urea bidding in June, the price of domestic urea continued to rise when the domestic urea export was good. The addition of urea at the same time meant the reduction of liquid ammonia, especially in the areas with ammonia shortage. The demand side is rigid and stable. In the peak season of spring ploughing, the downstream replenishment increases, and the supply exceeds the demand, which leads to the continuous sharp surge of liquid ammonia.

Urea price trend chart

In terms of urea, urea rose intensively in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring of the business society, urea rose by nearly 5% from March 15 to 31. On the one hand, foreign trade led domestic trade procurement, large factories frequently repaired urea, and the domestic market inventory was also at a low level. Although some light storage sources were released at the beginning of April, the operating rate of Inner Mongolia plants continued to decline due to the impact of double control, and the market expected to have a negative impact on domestic supply The effect is still obvious. It is expected that the short-term urea price will strengthen or continue to break through, and will seek a balance between export and domestic supply.

Map of price trend of map

Price trend of DAP

As far as the downstream compound fertilizer is concerned, it is generally consolidated at a high point, and the rising trend is weak. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 3.36% in March, while the price of diammonium phosphate increased by 8.32%. It can be seen that the downstream is still weak. The price rise of the upstream may further affect the profits of the downstream. The market has obviously entered a stagflation period. With the end of spring cultivation and fertilizer preparation, the agricultural demand continues to weaken It is expected that the high price of raw materials may further lead to the decline of demand.

In the future, the business community believes that the current shortage of liquid ammonia supply may be alleviated in the near future. After the Qingming Festival, the news of plant start-up will be released, large plants in Henan may resume production after the festival, and the plant in Chongqing will resume production in mid April. In addition, the delivery of goods in Northeast China will also increase, and the supply is expected to increase slowly in the near future. Therefore, the price of liquid ammonia may reach the top at present.