First, the price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the aggregate MDI price this week closed at 17,250 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from last week, down 0.29% from last week.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Product: The domestic aggregate MDI market fell in a narrow range. Jinan Hequn Trading Co., Ltd. reported MR200 17000 yuan / ton; Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd. MR200 17000 yuan / ton; Nanjing Charcoal Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported MR200 199000 yuan / ton; Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Pan Asia International News MR200 17200 yuan / ton .

Industry chain: This month’s aggregate MDI was affected by the complementary product 141b, and the price fell sharply, falling to the lowest point of the year. It is reported that as a convergent MDI complement 141b, due to environmental factors, prices have skyrocketed, domestic supply is limited, manufacturers supply limited supply, supply is in short supply, resulting in low downstream operating rate, the demand for polymeric MDI decline, resulting in a sharp drop in prices, the industry panic I don’t know if this wave is suitable. It is expected that the short-term will not be resolved, the price will not increase significantly, and the follow-up price will continue to drop.

III. Conclusions and prospects

Business analysts believe that it is difficult to solve the problem of 141b in the short term, and the price will not rise sharply. The follow-up price will continue to drop.

As the downstream demand for pure benzene in Asia has been very strong, and the new capacity is limited, the supply of pure benzene in this year is tight. According to relevant statistics, this year, the demand for pure benzene in the Asian region will increase by one year, and the newly added capacity is only in Vietnam and the Middle East, with a total annual production capacity of 650,000 tons, which is obviously insufficient.

Since the end of 2016, the supply of pure benzene in Asia has been tight, causing spot prices to soar to about $1,000 per ton in early 2017. In 2017, a pure benzene plant with an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons was put into operation in India. Several Korean manufacturers have expanded their capacity during the overhaul of the cracker to increase the original benzene production capacity by 400,000 tons per year. Nonetheless, due to the failure of related equipment operations and the increase in demand for benzene, the supply of benzene in the Asian market in 2017 is still insufficient.

According to a Reuters report on August 27, trade sources said on Monday that ONGC Videsh had sold 1 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Das crude oil to Dubai at a premium of $1.30 to $1.40 per barrel.

They said that the oil loaded from September 28 to 30 will be awarded to Glencore.

They estimate that the price will be about 70 cents a barrel lower than the official selling price (OSP).

Earlier this year, a consortium led by the Indian oil and gas company won a 10% stake in the offshore oil concession of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.

According to the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China produced a total of 5.091 million tons of chemical fertilizers in June, which was down by 3.3% year-on-year. This was the first month of decline in production in the first half of this year, and the decline in fertilizer output slowed down. . In the first half of this year, China’s cumulative production of chemical fertilizers was 26.363 million tons, down 6.5% year-on-year.

Judging from the monthly output of chemical fertilizers, the first quarter was affected by factors such as tight natural gas supply, and the output declined greatly, with a monthly decline of 13.5%. After the second quarter, the supply of raw materials improved. In addition, the price of fertilizers was higher this year. The production enthusiasm was high and the output rebounded. However, due to environmental pressure, the overall output was still lower than the same period last year.

Potassium fertilizer, nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer production continued to fall, who fell the most?

In terms of varieties, potash is the best variety produced this year and the only one with positive growth. In the first half of this year, China’s cumulative production of potassium fertilizer was 2.893 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Qinghai’s output was the first. In the first half of the year, it produced 1.914 million tons of potash, down 1.2% year-on-year; Xinjiang’s output was second, and cumulative production of potash in the first half of the year was 584,000 tons, up 2.9% year-on-year.

Nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer production both fell, and phosphate fertilizer production fell relatively small. In the first half of the year, China’s cumulative production of phosphate fertilizer was 6.772 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. Among them, Guizhou produced a total of 1.771 million tons of phosphate fertilizer, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, surpassing Hubei ranked first. Hubei produced a total of 1.701 million tons of phosphate fertilizer, down 7% year-on-year, ranking second.

Potassium fertilizer, nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer production continued to fall, who fell the most?

Nitrogen fertilizer production declined the most. In the first half of this year, China’s cumulative production of nitrogen fertilizer was 18.879 million tons, down 7.5% year-on-year. The top five provinces in terms of output are Henan, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Hubei, and Shanxi, with output of 2.293 million tons, 2.122 million tons, 2 million tons, 1.805 million tons, and 1.794 million tons, up 0.5% year-on-year and down 5.4%. Growth was 2.5%, a decrease of 7.9%, and a decrease of 5.9%.