1、 Price trend

 

This week (4.13-17), the domestic polysilicon market fell sharply, and the prices of polycrystalline compact materials and polycrystalline non washable materials declined to varying degrees. The main reason is that the manufacturer’s quotation was greatly reduced due to the impact of inventory pressure, and then the demand side problem. Affected by the epidemic, the downstream purchase demand further shrank, and the export orders of components significantly shrank, so the market price is still low this week, The price of new orders in the market dropped a lot. According to the monitoring of the business agency, this week’s polycrystalline silicon solar grade I material fell by 7.8%, and the price of polycrystalline silicon has maintained a downward trend for four consecutive weeks.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In terms of market supply, at present, polysilicon is in abundant supply, and the manufacturer’s devices are partially shut down. The overall domestic operation rate remains at 80-90%. As of April 17, only 1-2 polysilicon manufacturers in China maintain maintenance or load reduction production, and the domestic production maintains a high operation rate. In addition, the polysilicon import end shows a tightening trend, and the polysilicon production capacity of South Korea is still not restored, which also eases the domestic supply pressure to a certain extent, and plays a buffer role in the current weak polysilicon market. At present, manufacturers mainly execute orders in the early stage. Most enterprises sign orders until May, and some enterprises sign orders in May. In addition, the market transportation pressure is not great, but affected by the increase of transportation cost, the delivery speed of manufacturers decreases. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main domestic transaction price of polysilicon with the model of primary solar material is 45000-49000 yuan / ton.

 

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From the perspective of demand, terminal demand is sluggish and continues to decline. The downstream operating rate remains at a low level in a phased manner. Some newly built single crystal production capacity is delayed due to the impact of the epidemic, and domestic production remains stable. At present, there is no release of new production capacity, which also alleviates the pressure brought by the supply end to some extent. On the other hand, the demand for polycrystals is also slightly stable due to the gradual recovery of the operating rate of downstream single crystal enterprises currently in production, but the export of terminal components is still the biggest problem restricting the entire silicon industry chain.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

In the future, the business community believes that the polysilicon supply pressure is becoming more and more prominent at present, but in the later stage, it is not ruled out that the supply pressure caused by the deterioration of the external environment will continue to increase. On the one hand, domestic enterprises will gradually return to work, and the downstream operation rate will slightly increase. The domestic operation rate will remain relatively high. On the other hand, the trend of overseas epidemic is becoming increasingly severe, and the combination of overseas anti Chinese photovoltaic products With the increase of dumping, the export will still bring many challenges in the future, so it is expected that polysilicon market will maintain a narrow downward trend in the near future.

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1、 Acrylic price trend:

 

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the acrylic acid market rose sharply this week. As of April 17, the average price of acrylic acid enterprises was 7900 yuan / ton, up 25.4% compared with the beginning of the week and 30.94% compared with last Friday (April 10).

 

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2、 Market analysis:

 

Product: acrylic acid market continues to push up recently. Last weekend, the raw material propylene rose sharply. Under the pressure of cost, the industry rose in all directions. The downstream inquiry and purchase were active. Under the cost pull, the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation moved up. On the 14th, the average price of acrylic acid enterprises rose to 7366.67 yuan / ton. After the sharp rise, the price of raw propylene fell sharply on the 14th and returned to rationality. On the 15th, the propylene market in Shandong continued to decline, and the price of acrylic acid remained firm and upward. The supply and demand side dominated the market, and the pace of trade and investment was fair. On the 17th, the domestic acrylic acid market was stable at a high level, with the mainstream price around 7600-8300 yuan / ton.

 

Industrial chain: on April 17, the market price of propylene in Shandong still fell slightly. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock. At the end of the month, it fell sharply again, with a monthly decline of more than 15%. On the first day, the price continued to decline by 100-200 yuan / ton, and on the second day, it still declined by 50 yuan / ton. On the third day, the price of some enterprises slightly increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. After the Qing Dynasty, the price of propylene increased steadily. On the seventh day, the price began to rise by 100 yuan / ton, and on the tenth day, it rose by 200-300 yuan / ton, while on the 11th day of Saturday, it rose by more than 1000 yuan / ton. On the 12th day of Sunday, it continued to soar by 1000-5000 yuan / ton, Monday After the sharp rise on weekends, the market may need to digest, and the price remained unchanged on the 13th. On the 14th, most of the enterprises’ prices dropped by 1000 yuan / ton, and some of them recovered to the price before the sharp rise. On the 15th, the price dropped by 500-1000 yuan / ton. On the 16th, the price continued to drop by 200 yuan / ton. Today, the price still dropped by 400 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 5900-6500 yuan / ton. The main reason is that The current price is about 5900 yuan / ton.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 12 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on April 16, 2020, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase rate are crude benzene (15.55%), DOP (6.08%) and acrylic acid (5.80%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and there are 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are propane (- 7.34%), propylene oxide (- 6.46%) and polysilicon (- 6.13%). The average rise and fall of this day was 0.05%.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to the acrylic analyst of business association, the current trading atmosphere of acrylic acid market is fair. Under the influence of supply and demand, it is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be dominated by high and strong operation, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of all aspects of the market.

Sulfamic acid

1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong increased from 5066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5283.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.28%, down 31.97% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol rose this week, with the April 10 octanol commodity index at 38.85.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

（1） Products:

 

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

 

This week, the ex factory quotation of main octanol manufacturers in Shandong Province rose: the quotation of octanol of Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. at the end of this week was 5300 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of this week; the quotation of octanol of lihuayi Co., Ltd. at the end of this week was 5250 yuan / ton, 250 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of this week; the quotation of octanol of hualuhengsheng Co., Ltd. at the end of this week was 5300 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of this week

 

（2） Industrial chain:

 

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Upstream raw material Market: propylene market rose sharply this week. The quotation increased from 5451.82 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5957.27 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 9.27%, down 17.70% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market is rising, which has a positive impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

 

Downstream market: DOP factory price rose this week. The DOP quotation increased from 5700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.75%, down 28.98% year on year. Downstream customers are more active in purchasing octanol, demand for octanol is higher, and DOP price increase has a positive impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In the middle of April, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate slightly. The price of propylene in the upper reaches has increased significantly, with strong cost support, and the enthusiasm for procurement in the lower reaches has also improved. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in mid April may be slightly higher under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

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1、 Trend analysis

 

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the initial copper price in 2020 fell continuously, falling to the lowest point of the year of 36560 yuan / ton (March 23), a drop of 25.44%, and then rebounded to the bottom. As of April 14, the copper price rebounded by 14.87% to 41995 yuan / ton.

 

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According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the spot copper price on March 23 reached a ten-year low, close to the low in September 2016. The current copper price level is equivalent to the price level in November 2016.

 

According to the current chart of the business association, the price of spot copper is very close to that of the main copper contract. The price of spot copper is slightly higher than that of the main contract for most of the past month, indicating that people are not so optimistic about the future copper price, nor are they particularly pessimistic.

 

Copper supply cut copper price rebound

 

Peru and other copper producing countries have taken measures to cut supply or interrupt logistics. MMG revoked the production guidelines of Las bambas copper mine in 2020. At present, the transportation of copper concentrate has been suspended. The total copper output of this copper mine in 2019 is 3825200 tons. BHP Billiton and Glencore holding Antamina copper mine in Peru has been shut down for two weeks due to the epidemic, and the copper output of this mine in 2019 is 44859 tons. Supply cuts raise concerns about copper supply. However, domestic refined copper production picked up in March. According to the survey data, 22 sample enterprises produced 665000 tons of cathode copper, an increase of 2.6% on a month on month basis.

 

List of domestic smelters affected by the epidemic:

 

Enterprise name

 

Smelter

 

Production in 2019 (10000 tons)

 

Take steps

 

Daye coloured

 

Daye Nonferrous refinery

 

Fifty-one

 

2. Reduce production rate in March

 

Jiangxi copper industry

 

Jiangxi copper (Headquarters)

 

One hundred and three

 

Reduce the feeding amount

 

SDIC Jincheng metallurgy

 

SDIC Jincheng metallurgy 11.25

 

Two

 

Production cut in March

 

Yuguang Gold and lead

 

Yuguang Gold lead copper smelter

 

Eleven

 

Production reduction in February and normal maintenance in April

 

Gold in gold

 

Zhongyuan Gold Copper Smelter

 

Three

 

1.2 – quarterly production reduction due to sulfuric acid and local environmental protection policies

 

Tongling Nonferrous group

 

Tongguan + Jinlong + aolu

 

Ninety-six

 

Reduce the feeding amount

 

Guangxi Nanguo copper industry

 

Guangxi Nanguo steel refinery

 

Ten

 

Extend maintenance and reduce production rate

 

Anhui Youjin Guanhua

 

Anhui Youjin Guanhua

 

Eight

 

January overhaul

 

Fei Shang copper industry

 

Fei Shang steel industry

 

Eight

 

Production cut in February

 

Jiangxi copper Fuye heding

 

Jiangxi copper Fuye heding

 

Forty-six point nine

 

One production line for maintenance and another production line for lowering feeding

 

Lingbao Gold

 

Lingbao Gold

 

Ten

 

2. Production cut in March

 

Sheng Hai chemical industry

 

Sheng Hai chemical industry

 

Eight

 

Production cut in February

 

zijin mining

 

Heilongjiang Zijin

 

Three point five

 

Production cut in February

 

Copper Group

 

Chifeng Jinfeng

 

Twenty

 

Reduce the feeding amount

 

 

Malaysia’s export of scrap copper delayed

 

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Malaysia renewed its action control order until April 28, when plant construction was still restricted, the recovery of scrap export was expected to be delayed, and the substitutability of refined copper for scrap was also expected to be enhanced.

 

Copper import and export are not affected temporarily

 

The General Administration of Customs released the import data of unwrought and rolled copper and copper materials in March 2020. According to the data, China imported 441926 tons of unwrought copper and copper materials in March, an increase of 13% year on year, and about 1.28 million tons from January to March this year. From January to February, it was 846107 tons. In March 2019, China imported 391000 tons of unwrought and rolled copper and copper materials, with a total of 1.18 million tons imported from January to March last year.

 

Domestic demand picks up and exports suffer

 

After the resumption of work and production in China, there will be a certain amount of compensation for the demand, but the deterioration of the overseas epidemic will cause a secondary impact on the demand of the manufacturing industry, especially the export of home appliances and mechanical and electrical products, which may have a potential demand impact of about 650000 tons. New infrastructure investment has a certain pull on copper consumption. New infrastructure projects such as 5g network, UHV, intercity high-speed railway, urban rail transit and new energy vehicle charging piles, according to the planned investment amount in 2020, respectively pull up copper consumption of 25000 tons, 100000 tons, 20000 tons and 9000 tons, totaling about 154000 tons, accounting for about 1.4% of domestic copper consumption. The actual proportion is limited.

 

The terminal industry is greatly affected by exports

 

In March, automobile production and sales dropped sharply year-on-year. On the one hand, export-oriented export-oriented enterprises faced three to half a year’s work stoppage, and employees’ income declined, which affected some automobile consumers; on the other hand, the export of Chinese brand automobiles and parts was blocked. In terms of household appliances, many air-conditioning enterprises’ export orders were cancelled by overseas customers in March, and the traditional air-conditioning sales peak season from April to May will be lost.

 

Outlook for the future

 

According to the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business agency believe that: copper prices have rebounded continuously, on the one hand, because copper production has been reduced or even interrupted, which has increased the market’s concern about copper supply, and copper prices have risen; on the other hand, with the resumption of domestic production, domestic demand has been partially restored, and the new national infrastructure also has a certain role in boosting. However, with the continuous fermentation of overseas epidemics, it not only affects the supply of foreign copper, but also affects the domestic terminal exports and then affects the demand for copper. Although London Metal Exchange (LME) closed on Monday, London copper opened sharply higher on the morning of the 14th, but it is hard to say that the market reversed when demand expectations are not optimistic. It is expected that copper will still be supported by copper supply interference in the short term and demand will be affected at the same time. The price is expected to fluctuate between 40000-44000 yuan / ton.

Sulfamic acid

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

 

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

 

2、 Market analysis:

 

Product: according to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises as of April 9 was 8900 yuan / ton, down 1.48% compared with April 1, up 0.75% compared with April 8, and the market of epichlorohydrin rebounded slightly on April 9. The price of raw propylene has been rising steadily. At present, some epichlorohydrin plants have been shut down for maintenance, and the low price of downstream users just needs to replenish the warehouse for goods preparation has driven the market of epichlorohydrin to pick up slightly. At present, the quotation of traders varies, and the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin market on the 9th is 8000-9200 yuan / ton.

 

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On April 9, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 62.85, up 0.47 points from yesterday, down 53.00% from 133.71 (2019-10-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 34.15% from 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

Industrial chain: on April 9, the market price of the upstream propylene in Shandong increased steadily. On September 9, the market transaction has risen to 5700-5800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is around 5700 yuan / ton. Affected by the international situation, the international crude oil market last month repeatedly reported new lows, but the market continued to rise after a sharp fluctuation on the 2nd. Now, many countries may introduce production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market and increase the propylene price. In addition, PP futures rose significantly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. It is expected that propylene prices will continue to rise in recent days. The downstream epoxy resin, supported by the production cost, overlaps the low price and just needs replenishment of the downstream terminal, the market negotiation atmosphere is more active, and the epoxy resin stops falling and returns to stability.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 20 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on April 9, 2020, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities are crude benzene (20.34%), hydrobenzene (7.95%) and acetone (4.19%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the first three products falling were aniline (- 4.43%), hydrochloric acid (- 3.92%) and calcium carbide (- 3.80%). The average price of this day is 0.5%.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, supported by the rising price of raw propylene and the reduction of the supply side, combined with the positive demand for replenishment in the downstream market, the market of epichlorohydrin may maintain a positive trend in the short term, but under the influence of the overall market environment, the operators are cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the specific trend needs more attention to the guidance of market news

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